Beyond Leni: Pink power 2.0
I am certain about myself that I will no longer run for any national position,” declared Mayor Leni Robredo during a radio interview. Determined to make her legions of followers understand the context of her decision, the Naga City mayor clarified that her decision was primarily driven by her devotion to her main constituency, who rightly deserve her full dedication.
“Three years [as mayor] is too short to accomplish everything … there are so many things I want to do that I cannot rush,” Robredo added, explaining the inherent challenges of overcoming bureaucratic inertia in a major local government unit. In short, she can’t be distracted from her immediate mayoral duties by throwing her hat into the (presidential race) ring barely a year after becoming Naga City mayor on a platform of transformative change, or, rather, restoration of her husband Jesse Robredo’s golden era of governance.
It didn’t take long before top opposition leaders expressed their sorrow over Robredo’s preemptive and seemingly categorical withdrawal from what could turn out to be a highly winnable and consequential race for the soul of our nation.
“We respect her decision even as we disagree with it,” lamented Sen. Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan, who was Robredo’s running mate in the 2022 presidential race, in a statement. The firebrand senator argued that the former vice president represents “the best position to build the broadest and strongest unity … to include all other groups and personalities outside our allied forces.” For the senator, Robredo could oversee a “formidable coalition, far broader, more inclusive than the one we forged in 2022, can be cobbled together, and lead us to victory in 2028.”
Permit me, dear readers, to take, in a Hegelian manner, a position that both affirms and disagrees with the positions of Robredo and Pangilinan. It’s absolutely true that all surveys show that Robredo is now the second-strongest contender for the presidency, having experienced a major surge in support in the past year against current Vice President Sara Duterte, who, so far, is the only declared candidate for the top office in 2028. But as Robredo has correctly argued, democratic forces should transcend the “savior” politics mindset and instead look at the impeccable roster of potential standard-bearers. Nevertheless, she will be an indispensable part of the process.
The problem with publicly available surveys is that they’re (in the words of former Sen. Sonny Trillanes) “chop suey,” since they include dozens of names rather than the inevitably narrow list of probable candidates. The premium, privately available data show that Sen. Paolo Benigno “Bam” Aquino IV and Sen. Risa Hontiveros are also competitive if only one of them stands for the progressive forces on behalf of Robredo. Should Robredo endorse any of these candidates, they can almost seamlessly inherit a major chunk of her support base. Given the strength of the Duterte camp, however, the real challenge is actually winning over independents, the Tulfo base, Marcos administration supporters, and even “soft DDS” voters, who may start distancing from a Duterte candidate amid all the ongoing corruption investigations. It all goes down to coalitional politics: the best possible explanation for Robredo’s massive surge in the past quarter is her cordial meetings with the current president earlier this year, which signaled the potential viability of a grand coalition in the next elections.
There is always a first for everything. If Robredo is not running for the highest office again, she could be a decisive factor by endorsing an inclusive and unifying “process” to choose the standard-bearer of democratic forces in 2028. Primaries? A council of elders? A mixed system, including crowdsourced votes from registered voters in addition to preelection surveys and analytics? Or an inclusive, community-driven, and consultation-based mechanism led by trusted civil society leaders? There is a wide range of options. Here, the pink movement can take a page from successful national unity coalitions from Hungary to the Czech Republic, where a grand coalition of progressive-democratic forces managed to dislodge corrupt strongmen. For the first time in our history, we might have a shot at not only electing a truly great president, but also building a new movement for transformative change after a decade of demagogic politics. We deserve better, and we can attain a better Philippines in the near future!
—————-
richard.heydarian@inquirer.net
