Bleak outlook on Trump’s effect on the world
Tokyo—United States President Donald Trump’s return to office in January struck the world like the relapse of an ailment. Consequently, the existing world order appears to be growing fragile. The US-European alliance in particular is weakening, to the likely benefit of Russia and China.
As international relations deteriorate under Trump’s influence, three symptoms can be seen. The Trump administration is attacking the Americas, trampling the weak, and antagonizing the Global South.
Trump, who has started to behave as if he were the emperor of the Western hemisphere, often calls attention to US President William McKinley, who served from 1897 to 1901. In an era of imperialism, McKinley led the United States into the Spanish-American War, compelling Spain to cede sovereignty over Puerto Rico and other territories to the US and effectively making Cuba a US protectorate.
Today, countries of North and South America have become targets as Trump directs threats and intimidation at Canada, Mexico, and Panama. Many countries indignantly feel that Trump is treating them like vassal states.
Europeans too have been subjected to Trumpist attacks. US Vice President JD Vance sharply criticized Europe at the Munich Security Conference on Feb. 14 by saying that the real threat to Europe comes not from Russia or China but “from within.” Trump further aggravated the split by calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy “a dictator,” falsely claiming that Ukraine started the war. Many European leaders immediately rallied to support Zelenskyy, stressing that the aggressor and the victim should be clearly distinguished.
In a final blow, Trump wrecked a US-Ukraine summit in the Oval Office on Feb. 28 by humiliating Zelenskyy. After the Ukrainian president pointed out that previous US administrations—including Trump’s first—had not stopped Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump argued that Zelenskyy held no cards, essentially commanding him to submit to US orders.
Many of Trump’s supporters identify as Christians, but his demand that the weak obey the mighty contradicts basic Christian teachings, which place high importance on helping the weak.
The countries of the Global South are just as aggrieved and interpret Trump’s dismantling of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) as an illustration of Washington’s disregard for poorer nations. This may drive them to rely on China more than ever. Many were as infuriated by Trump’s proposal to “take over” the Palestinian territory of Gaza and displace 2 million residents to third countries, as such actions would be grave violations of international law.
The basic grammar of the globe appears to have shifted away from justice, liberalism, and multilateralism and toward strength, crude national self-interest, and unilateralism.
These three symptoms of Trumpism appear to show resemblance to the Jacobins of the French Revolution, radicals who terrorized and executed those they deemed enemies, only to self-destruct in the end.
Based on this analogy, I can offer two near-future prognoses: the first is that Trump’s Jacobinic and mercurial behavior will prove to be self-defeating. His challenges to the existing order will prove abortive, resulting in no drastic change even as he leaves much confusion and disorder in his wake.
For example, his economic policy of seeking lower inflation while also imposing high tariffs appears illogical. His constant dismissal of talented professionals from a variety of posts looks self-destructive, empowering the arguments of his opponents. With his excessive optimism and insufficient understanding of the complexity of geopolitics, he may fail to produce any substantial outcomes.
The second prognosis is more depressing: The world will eventually be split into spheres of influence, separately dominated by the United States, China, Russia, and perhaps Europe. Trump, like Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, never hides his oligarchic inclination to control the world alongside other major powers.
Trump’s pro-Russian approach and his disregard for Europe may foreshadow a backward world of illiberal 19th-century visions. Countries of the Global South, including many in Asia, may try to keep their distance equally from any of these spheres. The result could be a new order in which the world is more predictable but more stifling. Trump’s Jacobinic moves on the international stage may be deterred by threats from the authoritarian leaders of rival spheres.
Lamentably, be it the first prognosis or the second, the world of tomorrow—or at least the next four years—will likely be no healthier and more dismal than it is today. The Japan News/Asia News Network
—————-
Kagefumi Ueno is a civilization essayist and a former Japanese ambassador to Guatemala (2001- 04), and the Holy See (2006-10).
—————-
The Philippine Daily Inquirer is a member of the Asia News Network, an alliance of 22 media titles in the region.
