Bracing for ‘super’ El Niño
That the Philippines will be hit by the El Niño weather phenomenon this year is no longer a question of if or when, but rather of how intense and devastating this year’s cycle will be.
The Department of Agriculture (DA) even raised the possibility of a “super” El Niño—some are even predicting a “Godzilla” event—that will certainly wreak havoc on the country’s vital agriculture sector, which is already hobbled by escalating costs of inputs, such as fertilizer, spurred by the continuing turmoil in the oil-rich Middle East.
The El Niño phenomenon is characterized by a longer and more intense dry season, and the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) predicted a 92-percent chance of a moderate to strong El Niño hitting the country in the fourth quarter of this year and is likely to extend to early 2027.
But even this early, the country is already baking under hotter and drier conditions, with forecasts of the heat index soaring to “danger” levels of 42 to 51 degrees Celsius in various parts of the country becoming routine.
Additional threat
Provinces such as Masbate, Sorsogon, Albay, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, and Catanduanes have also already reported three straight months of about 60 percent less rain than usual, and this is likely to worsen when El Niño peaks.
And as if this were not challenging enough, Pagasa said that the Philippines should likewise prepare for a more intense southwest monsoon or “habagat” season in the western part of the country from June to August as the conditions for a full-blown El Niño episode build up.
Resources of both the national and local governments are already stretched thin by the need to respond to the Middle East crisis that has caused oil prices to surge, and consequently, the prices of basic goods and services.
And yet, the entire government apparatus must dig deep, craft strategies, and implement all necessary measures to strengthen the country’s response to this additional threat with potentially far-reaching consequences.
Grim figures
During the 2024 El Niño episode, which was described as one of the worst on record, total damage to agriculture due to the extended dry spell and drought conditions was pegged at P57.78 billion, one of the biggest losses ever sustained by the sector.
The corn sector, which produces the feed for livestock, was hardest hit, followed by rice, high-value crops, and cassava.
The fisheries sector was not spared from the adverse effects of warmer temperatures, and neither was the livestock and poultry industry nor the coconut sector, which all support employment in the countryside.
Total output decreased by 2.2 percent to P483.58 billion in 2024, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority.
These grim figures should impress upon government officials the urgency of preparing now and preparing well for the full impact of this year’s El Niño, which has a higher chance of being a moderate to strong one rather than weak.
Fortunately, Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. has indicated that he is indeed aware of the potential magnitude of the impact and has already directed managers of the DA’s Masagana Rice Industry Development Program to lay out and prepare for worst-case scenarios.
Initial actions include the immediate shift to less water-intensive crops, such as mung beans, to ensure that people have nutritious food on the table; adjusting planting calendars and then accelerating the rollout of solar-powered irrigation systems so that precious water supply will be used efficiently to produce crops despite below-average rainfall.
Best practices
The DA is also coordinating with the National Irrigation Administration to optimize water allocation and is reviewing rainfall projections and water availability to recalibrate planting strategies in an attempt to mitigate the potential impact of the weather phenomenon that has worsened due to climate change.
The Metropolitan Waterworks and Sewerage System has also directed distributors Maynilad Water Services Inc. and Manila Water Company Inc. to be ready to activate contingency measures, including reducing water losses and optimizing treatment plant operations, in case supply from Angat Dam, which supplies the bulk of the water supply in Metro Manila, declines.
Towns, cities, and provinces across the country are also stepping up their preparation for the worst-case scenarios, and they should be able to do so easily, considering that the El Niño weather phenomenon is not new to the Philippines.
There should be enough history by now to look back on to see what worked and what did not, so that only the best practices will be employed this time around, not just by government but also by the private sector and individuals.
For while there is no way that the Philippines can fend off the El Niño phenomenon, proper preparation, coordination, and cooperation among the public and both public and private institutions should help blunt the worst effects on food supply, energy, prices of basic goods, and farmers’ welfare.
