Bullets and ballots in BARMM elections (2)
Cotabato City—Finally, the long-anticipated first-ever parliamentary elections in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) took place last Monday, Sept. 14, 2026.
It was indeed historic. It was the first parliamentary election that could only take place in the BARMM, and no other region in the country.
The ballots were delivered, but the bullets still came with them.
Last week, several incidents led to the deaths of some people, and according to the United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP), among those who were killed were their supporters who monitored some precincts. Some people were reported to have brought firearms to the polling places in some areas of Maguindanao and in this city, and the gun-toting men were reportedly not members of UBJP but of another political party.
And there was this highly publicized ballot shading incident in the municipality of Maluso in Basilan province. This was not confined to Basilan province. Several reports from various mainland provinces in the region also mentioned ballot shading the day before the election took place.
This historic election has been postponed at least three times. In every postponement, huge changes happened that have rocked the regional bureaucracy, starting with the exit of Sulu province as part of the region on Sept. 9, 2024. This was through a ruling of the Supreme Court that ordered Sulu’s exit “final and executory” upon its promulgation.
The second major earthshaking event in the region happened in early 2025. In March of that year, then Interim Chief Minister Ahod B. Ebrahim, aka “Kagi Murad” (his nom de guerre as the chair of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front), was replaced with another top MILF leader—Abdulraof Macacua.
The sudden replacement when the transition period of the region was about to close raised more questions than answers. The transition was supposed to end in October 2025, but it did not happen since no elections took place. The Supreme Court ruled that the elections cannot happen because the regional election law that the BARMM Parliament passed was “unconstitutional.” Among the main infirmities of that law was its strong and expansive gerrymandering provisions that contradicted the provisions of both the Constitution and the Bangsamoro Organic Law. These provisions required voting districts to be lumped based on their being adjacent or close to each other.
The drastic replacement of the then interim chief minister also created more suspicions that the new leaders of the region, now belonging to a rival political party, could be its pawns to deliver votes for the one President Marcos will “anoint” to replace him in the 2028 presidential election. This is the Bangsamoro Federalist Party (BFP), the main political rival of the MILF’s UBJP.
Reports from different provinces claimed that BFP was the frontrunner during the campaign period, as shown in huge tarpaulin messages that said some municipalities and provinces were “fully supportive” of BFP.
Even without a highly critical mind, one can see where the BFP came from. It is the regional iteration of Mr. Marcos’ Partido Federal ng Pilipinas. And the BFP ran a highly competitive and expensive campaign, owing to the massive support of Mr. Marcos as shown during his preelection visit to the BARMM.
True enough, the BFP garnered more votes for its party representatives (31) compared to the votes of UBJP party representatives (30).
However, this outcome is not something the BFP can celebrate yet. The seats it garnered are still insufficient to become the majority party in the regional parliament. This is crucial because it is from the majority party where the next regular BARMM chief minister will come from.
Under the region’s parliamentary setup, having no political party that garnered a majority of the votes will mean that either the BFP or UBJP will coalesce with other political parties to ensure even a simple majority of 41 seats in the 80-member parliament.
In addition to 30 district representative seats that the UBJP garnered, it also secured six sectoral seats in the new regular parliament. However, 36 seats are still insufficient to make the UBJP the majority party.
The UBJP needs to make some strategic and pragmatic plans to create a powerful coalition government in the BARMM to ensure the continuation of the stalled peace process requirements.
This is because ballots alone do not stop bullets from being fired.
After the elections, a strong regional “nation-building” process should happen, based on the gains of the peace process so far. It should start with mindsets that look at the long-term vision of creating a progressive, resilient, inclusive, and peaceful regional government rather than being obsessed with gaining more political power and the perks that come with it.
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