Buying time in the West Philippine Sea

On Aug. 2, 2024, Bloomberg News came out with a report titled, “Philippines Fortifies South China Sea Outpost for a Decade.” According to Bloomberg’s four sources—unidentified since they were not authorized to discuss the issue publicly—efforts to fortify the BRP Sierra Madre on Ayungin Shoal in the West Philippine Sea (WPS) have been accelerated by the Marcos administration, and that the improvements made “have been sufficient to fortify it for years.”

While this news report was carried by foreign media such as the South China Morning Post and MSN, it wasn’t picked up by local media. The Philippine government has not made any statement about it either. At this point, this report may be considered unconfirmed. Personally, I’d prefer that the Philippine government would neither confirm nor deny the report. Keep the matter vague and ambiguous with everyone guessing, especially Beijing.

As the news report is still unconfirmed, I guess only time will tell if the Philippine government has indeed fortified the BRP Sierra Madre to keep it intact for the next decade. I do hope this is true since it means that our country has bought time to make the necessary efforts to enable us to effectively deal with the challenges posed by China to our maritime entitlements and sovereignty in the WPS, and to deter it from further seizing areas in our exclusive economic zone (EEZ).

As most people know by now, the resupply missions to the grounded ship on the shoal is the most contested issue in our dispute with China in the WPS. It has been the site of several dangerous encounters between the Philippine and Chinese coast guards that have resulted in injuries to Filipino sailors. Ayungin Shoal is a red line for the Philippine government, with the continued presence of our outpost on the BRP Sierra Madre keeping China from taking control of the shoal and eventually building another facility there like it did on Mischief Reef, which is also within the Philippine EEZ.

The aggressive and dangerous actions of the Chinese coast guard to prevent resupply missions and the transport of construction materials to the BRP Sierra Madre, as well as its repeated and vociferous demands for the Philippine government to remove the grounded vessel on the shoal, only proves how crucial it is to Philippine interests to make sure the navy ship does not fall apart.

Despite its dilapidated state, the BRP Sierra Madre is still a commissioned naval vessel, which means an attack or its forcible removal provides the Philippines just cause to use force in self-defense. Such actions on the part of China can be grounds for triggering our Mutual Defense Treaty with the United States.

Some foreign policy experts have raised the question if the Americans would be willing to go to war with China over a bunch of rocks in the South China Sea. That question is equally applicable to China, even if the Americans don’t step in to help us.

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Will China risk portraying itself as a bully, enforcing its will by force on a weaker state, while knowing the reputational risks and costs entailed by such aggression and violation of international law? This, considering its priority to reunite with Taiwan, by force if necessary; its territorial disputes with Japan, India, and Vietnam; competition with the US for global influence; issues with its economy; the impact of its demographic decline, and efforts by the West to reduce their economic dependence on China. Given all these issues, Beijing may need to think twice before doing anything drastic and reckless.

Looking forward, we don’t need to beat China in a war; we just need to use the time afforded us wisely and effectively to be able to develop the capability and capacity to further raise the costs to China in the event that it chooses to use force to impose its will on us in the WPS.

If the BRP Sierra Madre has indeed been fortified for the next decade, let’s not waste the time it has bought our country. However, if the news report turns out to be untrue, then the government knows what needs to be done.