Can the Philippines become the ‘Ukraine of Asia?’

China’s military objectives in the South China Sea and West Philippine Sea are centered around asserting its expansive claims and have revolved along the following strategy: its militarization of artificial islands that it has built, and military installations in the disputed waters including Mischief Reef, Fiery Cross Reef, and Subi Reef. These outposts are equipped with military assets, such as anti-air and antiship missiles, radar systems, and combat aircraft.

Through maritime law enforcement, it uses its coast guard and maritime militia to enforce its claims, often through aggressive tactics like swarming, water cannoning, and ramming. These actions aim to deter other nations from asserting their own claims or engaging in economic activities in the region. China’s gray zone tactics involve using nonkinetic pressures to achieve its objectives without escalating to full-blown conflict, including diplomatic pressure, economic coercion, and information manipulation.

China has projected its power by establishing a strong military presence in the South China Sea, and to have a dominating influence on the region, potentially altering the balance of power in its favor.

Its claim conflicts with United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, which governs maritime rights and territories. In 2016, the Arbitration Court in The Hague ruled that China’s nine-dash-line claim has no legal basis, and that these so-called historic rights to resources in the South China Sea were incompatible with the Unclos.

The aggressive actions of China in the West Philippine Sea have only led to a significant response from the United States, particularly in strengthening US military presence in the Philippines through the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement bases, which have been increased and are now bristling with US Typhon and Tomahawk missiles. The increased regional tensions have only led to the increased defense spending by members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), a remilitarized Japan, South Korea, and even Australia. If there is anything positive about this for us, it has only made us finally realize that to be a really sovereign country that can protect its own people and territory, we need to have our own external defense capability that is not dependent on the whims of another big power for our archipelagic defense.

The possibility of China making the Philippines the “Ukraine of Asia” is a concerning scenario that has been advanced by geopolitical observers. The Philippines and China—which mark their 50 years of diplomatic relations this year—have a complex relationship, with ongoing disputes over territories and marine resources in the West Philippine Sea. On the other hand, the Philippines has a long-standing alliance with the US, which has been strengthened in recent years because of China’s assertiveness in the region and is now challenging what was once regarded as the “American Lake in the Pacific.”

The strong US-PH alliance could potentially draw the US into a conflict between the Philippines and China, much like the situation in Ukraine with Russia. A conflict in the Philippines could lead to a significant humanitarian crisis, with potential displacement of people and loss of life, and destruction of infrastructure. A conflict between the Philippines and China could escalate quickly, drawing in other regional players and potentially leading to a larger-scale conflict.

The Philippines’ decision to invite US military deployments and missiles on its territory, possibly aimed at China, Russia, and even North Korea is a complex issue that raises questions about regional dynamics and Asean’s role. As a sovereign nation, the Philippines has the right to determine its own foreign policy and defense arrangements. However, given the potential implications of an Asean member’s actions on regional instability, consulting with Asean neighbors could be beneficial.

In conclusion, while the Philippines has the right to determine its own foreign policy and defense arrangements, consulting with Asean neighbors could be beneficial in promoting regional stability, through a more coordinated approach to regional security. When the Philippines assumes the chairmanship of the Asean and chairs the Asean Summit next year in 2026, we can significantly strengthen our diplomatic position with China on the West Philippine Sea. Thus, the Philippines can promote a stronger pro-peace regional diplomacy.

While the “Ukraine of Asia” is a concerning scenario, it is not inevitable. Diplomatic efforts, adherence to international law, and major regional dialogue and cooperation, can all help to reduce tensions and promote stability in the region.

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Roland Simbulan is a geopolitical and defense analyst who has authored nine books on Philippine-U.S. security relations and Philippine foreign policy. He is currently the chair of the Center for People’s Empowerment in Government (CenPeg), a public policy think tank on good governance, transparency, and accountability.