Cebu Summit: Testing Asean unity

The run-up to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) Leaders’ Summit in Cebu next month will see intense geopolitical pressures bearing down on Asean. The success or failure of the meeting of the region’s leaders will be determined by how well they are able to keep the alliance together and not be swayed into alignment with either side of the great power rivalry while safeguarding the interests of the region. It is clear that Asean risks being relegated to little more than a battleground for the two superpowers as they wage war for influence and supremacy in the Indo-Pacific region.

China is the single most important actor in Asean’s strategic landscape. It is the region’s largest trading partner, and this is where China is pursuing connections across the Global South, particularly in terms of supply chains and infrastructure development. The Chinese foreign ministry presents China’s foreign policy in four words: amity (friendliness), sincerity, mutual benefit, and inclusiveness, and most Southeast Asian nations are eager to pursue cooperation with China that can yield tangible returns.

However, the issue of the South China Sea cannot be easily bypassed. There are Chinese claims to a large portion of the sea that are increasingly being pressed on a number of Asean nations, including the Philippines and Vietnam, both issues that will likely come up on the beaches of Cebu this year, where the Asean Summit will be held. Manila is likely to demand tougher language on maritime conflict and a united Asean stance when leaders gather for the annual summit.

As the biggest security player in the region, the United States remains the number one security partner for Asean, even if it is not the leading economic power in the region. The US last year formally launched its Indo-Pacific Strategy that references Asean’s centrality in regional frameworks. It wants to be free, open, and secure. Washington maintains a sizable military presence in maritime Southeast Asia as well as a development partnership on security and economic fronts with individual Asean member states.

While Manila will likely raise its concerns over the South China Sea issue and the need for US cooperation on maritime security during the summit, there is no universal endorsement of the US position within Asean. There are those clamoring for an increasingly assertive US foreign policy. Others might wish the US to remain indifferent. But at the Cebu Summit, Asean will be evaluating whether it can continue to maintain a posture of nonalignment even as it attempts to be cooperative with Washington.

When facing external challenges, Asean cannot help but be reminded of the weaknesses of its internal unity, highlighted by the ongoing Myanmar crisis in its 2021 “military coup” version. That the Five-Point Consensus agreed upon last April has not been implemented, and more profoundly, that the leaders of Asean are unable to speak with one voice in pressing Myanmar’s generals to honor their commitments, is an embarrassing spectacle of the organization’s lack of internal coherence and the resultant weaknesses in asserting its relevance in the face of external challenges from more powerful actors.

All these problems are interrelated. In terms of strategy, the degree of dependence on China generates a certain leverage on the Chinese side, while the level of cooperation with the Americans increases vulnerability. Due to its own geographic isolation, Russia is unable to play the role of an effective counterweight to China in the region. The main actors are left to their own devices, allowing them to muddle along as best they can. Tensions over the South China Sea persist, while the crisis in Myanmar is seen by many as a sign of the diverging interests of the world’s major powers. One of the strengths of the summit may be that it is difficult to draft a reasonable joint communiqué while not irritating the perspectives of the main players, but that may also be a weakness.

While Asean’s dependence on external actors has progressively waned, there is still further room for it to strengthen its independence. To this end, the association must become more integrated, express a united position on maritime issues and cultivate a more diverse range of alliances, operating exclusively through Asean-centred frameworks and avoiding so-called bloc politics. Asean will gather for the Cebu Summit, providing a suitable opportunity to map out a long-term road map to ensure the region remains secure and resilient from 2026 to 2030.

As we approach the Cebu Summit, it is an important moment to assess whether Asean remains relevant as a pillar of stability in the Indo-Pacific beyond 2018 or would be increasingly drawn into the great power rivalry. The fate of Asean would hinge on several key factors, including unity, diversification, institutional credibility, and strategic adaptability across the region.

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Simon Hutagalung is a retired Indonesian foreign ministry official. The opinions expressed in this article are his own.

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