China’s missile test threatens regional stability
China’s missile test in the South Pacific of a nuclear-capable missile on July 22, 2026, has triggered widespread concern in the Indo-Pacific region. It also symbolized China’s capability to counter nuclear deterrence in the region, and challenged the regional nuclear restraint norms. China stated that the missile test was part of the annual routine military training, yet the exercise took place in the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone.
As it was a “test” of a new missile capable of being nuclear armed, the launch has become the focus of much anxiety in the region, with Australia this week leading condemnations from across the Indo-Pacific.
New Zealand, home to the Pacific Nuclear Free Zone secretariat, and host last month to senior nuclear free zone officials from around the Pacific, was particularly indignant. In their view, China’s actions amount to a breach of trust of the long-held commitment by states of the Pacific to nuclear disarmament and the elimination of nuclear weapons from the region. Japan was concerned for similar reasons to those expressed by Australia, New Zealand, and others in the region that China’s increasing nuclear-armed missile capability could undermine regional security and stability and pose serious threats to the interests of other nuclear-armed states in the region, while also heightening the risks of nuclear conflict globally.
Viewed from a regional perspective outside the South Pacific, China’s actions pose problems and challenges for Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) countries in a number of areas. First, they erode confidence in nuclear-free zones as effective instruments for containing the spread of nuclear arms and for ensuring peace and stability in regions where nuclear arms have not been acquired by any country. While China’s actions are taking place in a region outside of Asean, they send a negative signal to countries in Southeast Asia that have collectively pursued nuclear-free commitments under the Bangkok Treaty.
In this regard, Indonesia views China’s actions as having a negative impact on regional stability. As South Pacific states rely heavily on nuclear-free commitment as a means to ensure their security and stability, their credibility as an effective security instrument is being tested by China’s actions. The test also highlights the limitations of security architecture in place within Asean and the region.
Therefore, while Asean countries are seeking constructive engagement with China, Asean must at the same time also work to ensure that China does not undermine Asean’s collective security norms and nuclear-free commitments. This would require Asean to balance its engagement with China and, at the same time, maintain its commitment to nuclear-free norms.
There are several problems and challenges posed by China’s actions. Firstly, China’s missile test would undermine confidence in nuclear-free zones and make such zones less relevant as a means of nuclear restraint. The test would increase mistrust and fear among countries in the region of China’s opaque actions, and it would confirm to many that China is a key player in the region, is prepared to transgress nuclear-free zones for strategic signaling. Such actions are likely to heighten the risk of miscalculation in a region already highly sensitive, given the presence of the United States and other nuclear-capable states.
In addition, the test would pose challenges to Asean’s complex diplomatic posture, one that strives to balance its commitment to nuclear-free zones and other agreed norms with great-power politics. Asean lacks the necessary mechanisms and structures to deal with issues that demand enforcement rather than dialogue and discussion. South Pacific countries lack the military power to deter major powers from tests in their territories. China’s missile test demonstrates that its strategic calculation continues to be driven by a need to develop a credible second-strike nuclear force.
Addressing these problems, therefore, requires a multilayered approach, starting with enhancing cooperation between the Bangkok Treaty and the Treaty of Rarotonga to establish a broad framework of a nuclear-free zone in the region. The association could, therefore, work out a joint declaration on the test, with participation of key players in the region.
Moreover, through the Asean Regional Forum, it is possible to launch dialogue on nuclear issues with a view to establishing measures for nuclear transparency and for nuclear risk reduction, including prior notification of nuclear missile test launches. The test of China’s nuclear-capable missile in the South Pacific is, thus, a strategic signal, and it is clearly destabilizing and undermines nuclear-free norms in the region. Problems of eroded trust and miscalculation, therefore, are great and need to be addressed through joint efforts by the region and outside powers to contain great-power assertiveness.
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Simon Hutagalung is a retired Indonesian Foreign Ministry official. The opinions expressed in this article are his own.
