Dealing with China a decade after the arbitral award
At the 10th anniversary of the arbitral award, commemorated on July 12, 2026, the Philippines stands at a decisive crossroads in its foreign and security policy. The award, grounded in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, affirms Manila’s sovereign rights in the West Philippine Sea. Yet China’s continued rejection of the ruling underscores both the enduring geopolitical complexity of maritime disputes and the inherent limits of legal adjudication when confronted with the realities of power politics.
This anniversary therefore is a wake-up call for Manila to advance a forward-looking framework that places maritime cooperation at the core of its South China Sea policy, while persistently safeguarding its maritime rights. The arbitral award clarified Philippine entitlements, but legal clarity alone cannot alter the tides of politics without consensus forged through dialogue and consultation.
The next decade must not be consumed by confrontation and escalation. It should instead be defined by shared stewardship of the seas, anchored in sustained collaborative ocean governance.
With the arbitral award, Manila can still sustain dialogue, build trust, and pursue practical cooperation with China, which remains the Philippines’ largest trading partner. In April 2026, China accounted for USD 4.13 billion or 29.7 percent of total imports, while ranking second in exports at USD 927 million or 12.9 percent, just behind the United States.
Overall, Philippine external trade reached USD 20.38 billion that month, with China contributing the largest share of imports and maintaining a persistent trade surplus of over USD 3.2 billion. These figures underscore that while disputes in the South China Sea persist, economic interdependence endures and this must be factored into any forward-looking policy framework.
Joint resource development offers a pragmatic approach to share benefits from oil, gas, and fisheries reducing conflict, protecting livelihoods, and ensuring sustainability. Beyond resources, collaboration on maritime safety, pollution control, and biodiversity protection can advance shared security and strengthen stewardship of the seas. Embedding these initiatives within broader ocean governance frameworks could transform contested waters into zones of shared responsibility for blue economy and sustainable ocean development.
Infrastructure and trade partnerships likewise create avenues for practical cooperation. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) can deliver bridges, railways, and jobs, but only if Manila secures terms that safeguard transparency and sovereignty. Diplomacy has already proven its worth—for instance, in 2025, incident-free resupply missions to the BRP Sierra Madre at Ayungin Shoal were achieved through principled talks with Beijing.
The arbitral award is a reminder that law truly matters.
Yet regional stability also rests on friendship and cooperation with China. If the Philippines can strike a balance by asserting its legal rights while pursuing political dialogue and economic collaboration, it will not only safeguard national sovereignty but also help stabilize relations with China.
The award represents a clear legal victory for the Philippines. Yet genuine political triumph lies in translating law into a responsibility to cooperate.
The Bilateral Consultative Mechanism (BCM) is a vital platform to keep communication lines open. Institutionalizing it is essential to lock in dialogue gains and ensure continuity in maritime cooperation.
The arbitral award must not derail BCM efforts with China. It should instead serve as a launchpad to broaden cooperation including the BRI. Above all, it highlights the urgent need for robust ocean governance and shared stewardship anchored in dialogue, trust-building, and institutionalized mechanisms to safeguard peace and stability in contested waters.
By embedding legal principles into ocean governance covering sustainable fisheries, environmental protection, energy security, and navigational safety, the Philippines can turn maritime disputes into responsible sea management. Manila can use the arbitral award’s legal clarity as a firm basis for maritime cooperation. This approach not only reinforces sovereignty and maritime rights but also positions the Philippines as a leading advocate of good ocean governance.
The Philippines must demonstrate that law can, in fact, coexist with pragmatism and that sovereignty can be better defended by pursuing cooperation with China and even other parties in the South China Sea.
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Rommel C. Banlaoi is the director of the Philippines-China Studies Center at Diliman College and president of the Philippine Society for International Security Studies.
