’Dream Team’: Uniting the third forces
Taipei—Back in late 2024, former Supreme Court Associate Justice Antonio Carpio and I publicly revealed our foreknowledge of the potential arrest of former President Rodrigo Duterte under the aegis of the International Criminal Court (ICC). I managed to secure relevant information via highly trusted sources during my July 2024 visit to The Hague, where I was originally scheduled to present a talk on the South China Sea disputes, until an 11th-hour security threat scuttled the whole event.
It goes without saying that both Carpio and I were met with denial by officials and mockery by pro-Duterte forces. By March of the following year, Duterte was in detention at The Hague, where he would most likely spend the rest of his life. More recently, I managed to get more direct information about another impending arrest under the aegis of the ICC: the official warrant against former police chief and now Sen. Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa.
Once again, top officials have been wishy-washy about the issue, while Duterte supporters have been mocking the prospect of an incumbent senator getting handed over to the international court. Multiple sources with direct knowledge of the workings of the ICC, however, have told me that Sen. Christopher “Bong” Go could be next, along with a number of other co-architects of Duterte’s deadly drug war. At this point, it’s just a matter of operational details, namely, how to arrest the likes of Dela Rosa with minimal logistical (and legal) complications.
Meanwhile, the newly energized Ombudsman, led by a man who oversaw Duterte’s ICC arrest as justice secretary, is reviewing relevant evidence pertaining to alleged corruption and abuse of power by Vice President Sara Duterte, when she was at the helm of the country’s best funded department. Similar investigations against other key members of the Duterte family, who have been lording over one of the country’s largest cities with complete impunity for decades, could be launched soon. Is a “Game of Thrones”-like “Red Wedding” in the works?
As we all know, cornered beasts can be even more dangerous. And the Dutertes remain popular, especially among the so-called “Solid South” and illiberal sections of the electorate. The opening months of 2026 could present yet another cliff-hanger moment for Philippine politics as the besieged Dutertes would likely mount yet another attempt to unseat the Marcos administration. I have a hard time seeing the notorious dynasty going gently into the night. The tremendously suspicious circumstances around the demise of former Public Works and Highways Undersecretary Catalina Cabral, who had direct and detailed knowledge of all the major shady infrastructure projects during the Duterte administration, only show how perilous the situation has become.
But as a famous American political apparatchik once said: “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste.” And this brings me to the question of “third forces,” namely the emerging liberal-progressive coalition that has consistently called for accountability but has refused to be hijacked by the coterie of pro-Duterte and Bolshevist destabilization forces in recent months.
The commendable discipline and ideological clarity of this emerging third force should, however, swiftly crystallize into a robust strategy for winning the presidency and all commanding heights of the state in 2028. They should also be prepared to serve as a stabilizing force and an anchor of constitutional democracy should the dark forces pull off a decisive extraconstitutional attempt at unseating the democratically elected Marcos administration. In short, the third force should be ready to take over the reins of government, either before or after the 2028 electoral battle.
Three ingredients are essential here. First, there should be sustained and principled engagement with institutions of the state, including the President, to protect the constitutional order. You don’t have to be a fan of the Marcoses to protect the constitutional order. Second, a two-tier political strategy should be developed, which mobilizes not only core progressive liberal supporters, who care most about good governance, but also the vast number of unaffiliated voters, who primarily care about economic security as well as law and order.
Ultimately, however, the third force should present a clear vision of the future that transcends the ills of the Dutertes and Marcoses. It should present a “dream team” that could credibly promise a competent, clean, and transformational government in 2028, if not earlier. Hint: Imagine a Malacañang under Sen. Paolo Benigno “Bam” Aquino and Sen. Risa Hontiveros with the likes of Pasig City Mayor Vico Sotto as key Cabinet members!
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richard.heydarian@inquirer.net
