Embracing pragmatic transactional realism
JAKARTA–As global leaders gathered in Davos for the World Economic Forum last week, the atmosphere appears to be shifting fundamentally. The long era of the liberal international order seems to be fading, replaced by a new and colder reality that could be best described as pragmatic transactional realism.
To understand this profound change, we might look to the words of Niccolo Machiavelli, who famously noted that the promise given was a necessity of the past while the word broken is a necessity of the present. This cynical wisdom appears to guide the strategy of United States President Donald Trump in his second term, as he moves to dismantle the system America once built to serve a new national purpose.
The liberal international order stood on three main pillars that provided global stability for decades: collective security through treaties like North Atlantic Treaty Organization, economic openness promoting free trade and respect for international institutions like the United Nations.
However, Trump seems to view these pillars not as assets, but as expensive liabilities. He appears to be turning security into a business deal, as evidenced by the recent friction over Greenland. When Denmark refused to sell its territory, Washington threatened heavy tariffs, suggesting that an alliance might no longer protect a country if the US sees a better deal elsewhere.
The disruption continues with the rise of the Board of Peace, a new organization launched by Trump reportedly to rival the UN. Unlike the UN, this Board appears to work on a strictly pay-to-play basis. Reports indicate that permanent membership requires a substantial financial commitment, effectively destroying the idea of sovereign equality and replacing it with a system where influence is purchased.
For Indonesia, this shifting landscape presents a critical need for evolution. For decades, Jakarta adhered to the doctrine of the “free and active.” However, in this ruthless environment, simple neutrality is no longer sufficient. To survive, Indonesia appears to be embracing a different approach: strategic transactionalism.
This new approach replaces passive neutrality with active calculation, treating every diplomatic engagement as a business transaction. We see the first signs of this approach in Indonesia’s decision to join the US-led Board of Peace. However, a cynical observation of domestic financial maneuvers suggests this pivot can be easily funded by the private sectors. The reported issuance of the “Patriot Bond 2” by the Danantara agency, aiming to raise roughly $1.2 billion (Rp 20 trillion), aligns suspiciously well with the estimated $1 billion “entry fee” for permanent membership on Trump’s Board. This coincidence suggests that the cost of joining this exclusive club is being easily supported by releasing these bonds, effectively creating a direct pipeline from national savings to the purchase of geopolitical relevance.
However, the implementation of this strategic transactionalism reveals a dangerous confusion. Jakarta has recently taken contradictory steps: joining the Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) alliance to challenge Western dominance, moving closer to China for critical investment and technological advancement, and simultaneously paying to enter Trump’s Board of Peace.
It seems the more foreign trips, the more the country become directionless in foreign policy. Instead of gaining leverage, this scattered approach may signal to the world that Jakarta does not know what it wants, making it vulnerable to manipulation by clearer-eyed powers.
This vulnerability brings us to the warning of Henry Kissinger, who once said that while it may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, to be the US’ friend is fatal. Kissinger meant that the US often sacrifices its friends to serve its own needs. The Greenland incident shows that Kissinger was likely right.
If Indonesia joins the Board of Peace while confusedly holding hands with rivals like China, it could find itself used as a pawn. To succeed with strategic transactionalism, Jakarta must stop trying to be everything to everyone and instead focus on specific, high-value deals that protect national interests.
The reality of this transformation was captured by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at the forum in Davos. He told the gathered leaders that the old order is not coming back and that we should not mourn it because nostalgia is not a strategy. Carney also reminded the room of the ancient rule that the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must. This stark message confirms that the pillars of the old world have likely crumbled.
As the US breaks the promises of the past to meet the necessities of the present, Indonesia must find a clear direction. It must move beyond a directionless accumulation of memberships and start executing real, calculated transactions to survive among the strong. The Jakarta Post/Asia News Network
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Andi Widjajanto is a senior adviser at Laboratorium Indonesia 2045 (LAB 45) and a former governor of the National Resilience Institute (Lemhannas).
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The Philippine Daily Inquirer is a member of the Asia News Network, an alliance of 22 media titles in the region.
