Forthwith in Filipino time

When Sara Z. Duterte became the first vice president to be impeached, what was even more remarkable was the percentage of members of Congress who endorsed the articles of impeachment. Political scientist and pollster Cleve Arguelles pointed out on Feb. 10 that 215 out of 305 representatives is nearly 70 percent of the Lower House, and marks “the highest absolute number of impeachment votes in (our) history.” He did point out that in terms of percentages, the highest remains the impeachment of Merceditas Gutierrez—impeached by 75 percent of the House. And, in contrast to her, the Vice President categorically refused to resign and would rather face an impeachment trial.

Since all politics, as they say, is local, it’s interesting that 72 percent of congressmen representing Duterte-leaning districts, mostly from Mindanao and Cebuano/Bisaya districts in the Visayas, endorsed the impeachment complaint. This is a smaller percentage than say, Northern Luzon, where 91 percent of representatives endorsed the impeachment: but it is remarkably high for the ethnic and geographical heartlands of the Veep. I responded to the findings presented in @IanIslander3’s marvelous political map on X (formerly Twitter) (based on research by Migs Caldeo) that this meant the political calculus of those representatives was that they wouldn’t take enough of a hit in the midterms to endanger their reelection or that of their successors.

And so the House impeached the Veep and that’s where it stands after the Senate adjourned for the election period right after receiving the articles of impeachment. There has been quite a ruckus about the Senate President saying that first, his chamber would only get the ball rolling after the midterms, and more lately, saying he expected to convene the impeachment court not at the tail end of the 19th Congress, but for the 20th Congress when it convenes to hear the President’s State of the Nation Address in July.

Eight senators are needed to acquit the Vice President and Arguelles is of the opinion the Veep “has a likely path” (the Veep can count on three reelectionists and both sides must surely be wary about the four considered wobbly enough to possibly vote for the Veep). Even if we assume that right now, the Veep has the votes to be acquitted, the composition of the Senate will change after the midterms and with it, that assumption. The Veep’s bean counters can argue it would make the four wobbly senators firmer—while the prosecution could hope for firmer and less wobbly senators might be elected.

By all accounts, the midterm senatorial field is not only crowded, but the outcome will also be close. Not some, but all candidates in the midterm risk alienating half of the country, whichever way, they themselves lean politically, merely by participating in an impeachment trial. The career-killing fallout from the Joseph Estrada impeachment, in which formerly durable senators went politically extinct (think Robert Jaworski, John Osmeña, Tessie Aquino Oreta, Nikki Coseteng; Miriam Defensor-Santiago and Juan Ponce Enrile also took a more temporary hit) must surely be top of mind. This is the dilemma for the seven reelectionists trying to remain in the “Magic 12” for 2025 (Bong Revilla, Pia Cayetano, Lito Lapid, Francis Tolentino from the admin; Bong Go, Bato dela Rosa, Imee Marcos, from other groups). Both sides have a shared interest in postponing the showdown to a time when the political math becomes clearer.

The least risk course of action was proposed—and just as quickly dismissed by consensus—when the supporters of the Veep suggested that impeachment at the end of the life of the 19th Congress was meaningless as the process would end with the terms of the House. The Senate, after all, is a continuing body, with half its membership in office while the entire House is up for election. The President obligingly offered to call a special session but pointed out he hadn’t been asked for one.

Had the Senate President, with nearly a third of his membership up for reelection, insisted on convening the Senate as an impeachment court “forthwith,” as the Constitution puts it, he would, at the very least, have imperiled his own Senate presidency for putting his colleagues in political danger. Even the House, which was eager enough to drop a political hot potato in the Senate’s lap, could end up complaining because it’s one thing to impeach and another to participate in a trial in the middle of a campaign. “Forthwith,” then, can indeed be as soon as possible, with haste, and all the dictionary meaning invoking time, but in the Filipino context, it means Filipino time. Right away! But after the campaigning, and the voting, and the counting, and the reconvening, and the speechifying. Five months is fast!

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Email: mlquezon3@gmail.com; Twitter: @mlq3