Gainers, losers in a changing political terrain

We’re in uncharted territory. For the first time ever, both a sitting president and vice president are simultaneously facing impeachment complaints, making the lower House the primary battleground. How lawmakers will interpret the constitutional mandate that an impeachment case be both sufficient in form and substance before it advances to the Senate for trial will play out in the coming days, determined more by the weight of numbers than the force of reason and evidence at hand.

Amid the flood control corruption scandal, the possibility that at least six of the eight senators will be charged in the Sandiganbayan will impact the configuration of the Senate (see my previous column, “Ombudsman’s dilemma,” 1/29/26).

Should this occur, the nine-member minority bloc will further dwindle, thereby increasing the majority bloc currently led by Senate President Vicente “Tito” Sotto III. The prolonged absence of Sen. Ronald “Bato” de la Rosa, who has been hiding from authorities since last year for fear of being arrested based on a purported warrant of arrest from the International Criminal Court, is one less vote for the minority.

Judging from the length of time that former Sen. Ramon “Bong” Revilla Jr. and Sen. Jinggoy Estrada spent behind bars in relation to the P10-billion pork barrel scam, senators who would be tried in the antigraft court for the flood control mess would be politically dead for at least one national election cycle. The earliest that they could return to political office would be in 2031, that is, with the assumption that the Sandiganbayan would lightly penalize them by ordering them to return the stolen money without a finding of guilt that would perpetually bar them from holding any elective office (Exhibit A: Revilla. see “Not guilty—but return the money?” Editorial, 12/8/18).

Scenarios. It’s too early to tell what the political fortunes of prominent names in Philippine politics will be in 2028. In politics, a three-year wait is a long time. But given the current moves to impeach the two highest officials in the land, the outcomes of these two, but separate, constitutional processes would ripple across the political landscape, reshaping the terrain of the 2028 presidential and local elections, and beyond.

Should the government get its act together and charge these senators without fear or favor and with dispatch, a few ambitious senators named by former Public Works Undersecretary Roberto Bernardo as lawmakers who got kickbacks from flood control projects, would find it difficult—if not impossible—to seek higher office in 2028; they would have to face the full wrath of the electorate, grievously fed up with rampant corruption in government. This could mean relatively fewer national candidates and thus a boon to Vice President Sara Duterte’s possible presidential candidacy (if she escapes yet another Senate impeachment trial this year) and to other current senators who might gun for VP.

Aside from Interior Secretary Jonvic Remulla, no other credible presidential contender has emerged from the administration camp. It also remains unclear whether Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro will once again seek the country’s highest post. In contrast, the opposition has many potential contenders: current Sen. Risa Hontiveros and Sen. Bam Aquino, former Vice President and now Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo, and even Rep. Leila de Lima, who could team up with any of the three.

Because of the age requirement, Pasig Mayor Vico Sotto can run for the Senate—he must be at least 35 years old on Election Day—but not yet as Vice President or President, which requires a 40-year-old candidate; he will only be 38 in May 2028, over a month shy of his 39th birthday (June 17). The rest of the relatively young contenders, who unwisely took a stab at the presidency in 2022, have learned their lesson the hard way.

The only factor that could alter these political scenarios is Charter change—a topic best reserved for another discussion.

Now, is the old guard finally giving way to the young guns? Not so fast. Reporters who have covered the Senate have a running joke about “reserved seating” for prominent political families. Because of their clout and wealth, scions of the old elite continue to hold important national positions, whether elective or appointive. The Senate is always the prime target for those wanting to protect their own and their backers’ business interests or use it as a launching pad for the presidency.

However, dynastic clans and their acolytes must now navigate a political landscape transformed not only by corruption scandals but also by significant demographic shifts: Millennials and Gen Z voters turned out in droves in 2025, making up 60 percent of the electorate (41.3 million). They would naturally gravitate toward the new breed of candidates who embrace their causes and issues. As digital natives, they ensured that the internet has played a significant role in the last two elections, eclipsing the reach of traditional campaign strategies and calling into question the political value of political spin masters.

All these show that nothing is permanent. In life or politics, change will come, however slowly.

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lim.mike04@gmail.com