Governance graded from below
Last week, Social Weather Stations (SWS) issued its latest readings of the people’s satisfaction with the top five national officials, in these reports: “Pres. Ferdinand Marcos, Jr.’s net satisfaction rating at +19, down from +32 in September 2024,” and “Net satisfaction rating for Vice-President Duterte at +21, Senate President Escudero at +42, Speaker Romualdez at +9, and Chief Justice Gesmundo at +14,” both at www.sws.org.ph, 1/15/2025.
Satisfaction and approval are different. The SWS numbers are ratings of public satisfaction, not approval, with how these officials did their jobs. The interviewer asks, “… kung gaano kayo nasisiyahan or hindi nasisiyahan sa pagganap ng tungkulin ni [NAME] bilang [POSITION]. Kayo ba ay lubos na nasisiyahan, medyo nasisiyahan, hindi tiyak kung nasisiyahan o hindi, medyo hindi nasisiyahan, lubos na nasisiyahan, o wala pa kayong narinig o nabasa kahit na kailan tungkol kay [NAME]? (… how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the performance of [NAME] as [POSITION]. Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, undecided if satisfied or dissatisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, very dissatisfied, or have you not ever heard or read anything about [NAME]?” (This 5-point scale, with an explicit middle, is ideal for face-to-face polling; it is superior to the favorable versus unfavorable 2-point scale common in polling by telephone.)
To get a true approval rating, the survey question should use the words sang-ayon o hindi sang-ayon (approve or disapprove) instead. Regardless of language, however, a grade of “approved” is lower than “satisfactory.”
A passing grade in school is inferior to a satisfactory grade; a class may have 100 percent passing but only 50 percent satisfactory. In my time as a teacher, I had students whose work did not satisfy me, but passed some of them, with a clear conscience. Many polls, especially American ones, ask for approval, not satisfaction, and hence produce approval ratings. Approval and satisfaction ratings ought to be correlated but are not equivalent.
“Net Satisfaction” captures the balance of opinion. This is the difference between the percentages satisfied and dissatisfied (with “somewhats” and “verys” added). It ranges, in theory, between +100, for unanimous satisfaction, and -100, for unanimous dissatisfaction. In the experience of the SWS national surveys from May 1986 to December 2024, the presidential net satisfaction score was a record-high +81 in June 2022 (in the time of President Rodrigo R. Duterte, RRD), and a record-low -50 in July 2008 (under President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, GMA).
(Incidentally, the base of the published percentages excludes those who don’t know or never heard of the official being rated—which presently ranges from one in 100 in the case of the president to one in four in the case of the chief justice.)
SWS classifies single digit, from -9 to +9, Net Satisfaction, as “neutral,” for simplicity; it’s not significantly different from zero. We call +10 to +29 “moderate,” +30 to +49 “good,” +50 to +69 “very good,” and +70 or more “excellent.” On the negative side are counterpart terms “poor,” “bad,” “very bad,” and “execrable.”
The honeymoon period has varied. The presidential net rating normally starts at over +50, or “very good,” and after some time declines. If one considers a “good” net +30 as the lower boundary of a honeymoon, the SWS data show honeymoon durations of three and one-fourth years for President Corazon C. Aquino (CCA), two and three-fourth years for President Fidel V. Ramos (FVR), one and a half years for President Joseph E. Estrada (JEE), no honeymoon for GMA, three and three-fourth years for President Benigno S. Aquino III (BSA), five and one-fourth years for RRD (excluding three quarters missing in 2020), and one and a half years for President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. (BBM).
For all of the SWS surveys done during their terms of office, the average net satisfaction rates of the presidents are: +35 for CCA, +38 for FVR, +33 for JEE, -7 for GMA, +45 for BSA, +62 for RRD, and +43 for BBM so far.
Take note of the demographics. In the SWS December 2024 survey, BBM’s net satisfaction rating was +19, from 51–32 satisfied minus dissatisfied, for the whole Philippines. It was statistically the same as Vice President Sara Duterte’s net score of +21, from 52–31.
The gender difference can be anticipated: BBM’s net score was +21 among men versus +18 among women; Sara Duterte’s net score was +16 among men versus +27 among women.
Broken down by geographical area, the net scores of BBM were +20 in the National Capital Region (NCR), +38 in Balance Luzon, +18 in Visayas, and -18 in Mindanao. For VP Duterte, on the other hand, net satisfaction was -3 in NCR, +1 in Balance Luzon, +32 in Visayas, and +67 in Mindanao.
Governance as graded from below can be fascinating to watch.
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Contact: mahar.mangahas@sws.org.ph
