Gunboat to bazooka diplomacy
Lately, I’ve been wondering how ready the Philippines is to handle the changing global order.
During the Cold War that began after the Second World War and stretched into the early 21st century, everything seemed so black and white. The “bad guys” were the “communists—notably the Soviet Union, China, and the member nations of the Warsaw Pact. The “good guys” were the United States, Western Europe, and the members of Nato (North Atlantic Treaty Organization). The Philippines, of course, belonged to the good guys, ever loyal to the US, defending democracy.
But times have changed, notably in the last 10 years, with the rise of right-wing parties all over the world. Trump and the US are increasingly seen as the leaders of these right-wing groups, marked by a vicious xenophobic (fear of foreigners) nationalism.
Filipinos are perplexed: How can Mother America become so hostile even to loyal Filipinos, deporting Filipinos who have acquired US citizenship? Health professionals, who saw America as the gateway to a new life of prosperity, are seeing opportunities to enter the US, which has imposed exorbitant fees for those planning to work in the States. (Even American health-care companies have protested because this makes recruitment of much-needed workers much more difficult.)
Deportations of Filipinos who already obtained US citizenship are now threatened, seeing how even US citizens are arrested and deported.
Trump seems to be going full-force, bullying even longtime allies like Canada and European countries.
The de facto takeover of Venezuela, with threats to take over Cuba, and the Greenland problem, are only the more visible aspects of the crisis.
Until now, Western allies have kowtowed to the American bully, but voices of dissent are becoming louder. Canada, known for being nice and polite, has recently moved, signing new agreements that open more trade ties with the US’ most hated nemesis, China. This came after a series of crippling US tariffs that threatened Canadian exports.
Generally, though, Europe and Canada have tried to be patient, in part worried that the US might retaliate. But the recent coziness with China shows that Canada is running out of patience, especially as Trump becomes more and more arrogant with the Greenland issue.
Trump has threatened to impose additional tariffs on European countries that support Greenland in opposing the US threat to annex them.
French President Emmanuel Macron has been the most vocal in calling on European colleagues to use an Anti-Coercion Instrument to retaliate. Ironically, the instrument was originally formulated to fight China but might now be used against the US instead.
The retaliation plan has been described as a bazooka. Without giving details on what this bazooka will be like, the Europeans say it would be deployed in a “united and coordinated manner” if Trump’s new tariffs are confirmed.
Trump’s European friends, notably the right-wing Italian Prime Minister and close friend of Trump, are trying to calm the other leaders, saying all this is just a “problem of understanding and communication.”
We will see, perhaps within the week, what will unfold.
What will all this mean for the Philippines and others watching from the sidelines?
Let’s hope that our Department of Foreign Affairs has expanded its monitoring of the new Trumpian global order.
It isn’t just Greenland. What we are seeing now is a new global order that requires us to look at all our alliances in different contexts.
We have to look at how the US has been handling Latin America (as in the takeover of Venezuela).
And in our own backyard, the China question has become more than the West Philippine Sea conflict. Sanae Takaichi, the new Prime Minister of Japan and the first woman to assume that office, has been one tough player in relation to China.
Sadly, we seem to be one of the most dispensable pawns in these regional and international conflicts.
It’s time to review our courses in international relations, regional histories, and, from history, the tactics of war and peace.
I’m not surprised American universities are going back to studying gunboat diplomacy (which should include our own Battle of Manila Bay and Admiral Dewey, or Dewey Boulevard notoriety), extending into the impending bazooka diplomacy.
Oh, and don’t forget, as a Catholic country, how many of our foreign affairs people are following the participation of the Vatican in trying to defuse the Venezuelan crisis?
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michael.tan@inquirer.net
