Hope for democracy in the world
I join the American majority who must be very pleased at the outcome of their midterm election last Tuesday, with the Democratic Party getting clear control not only in the House of Representatives—as strongly predicted by the United States polls—but also in the Senate, where their odds of winning were only moderately favorable.
The Democratic Party is, for now, the party of the American majority. Its victory in Congress, has earned it some tools to correct Trumpist wrongdoing, such as conducting hearings and investigations backed by subpoena power. It only lacks the two-thirds needed to overturn the vetoes of their bills that President Donald J. Trump promises to render at every opportunity.
It would be no surprise if Trump stays in character, and maintains his style of governing the country. He still has over two years, barring removal by impeachment or whatever, as president. He might continue his mischief, in which case my guess is that he will wreck the prospects of Republican Party candidates in 2028 even more than he did this year.
How do Americans feel about their election? The way toward scientific understanding of what people want is by studying opinion polls—not only by any pollster in particular, but by the community of pollsters. The world’s largest such community, naturally, is in the US, where the industry was pioneered in the 1930s. The US has many polls, some public—shared by CNN, ABC, Fox News, the New York Times, the Washington Post, etc.—and some private, i.e., done by loyal Republican or Democratic partisans, for limited circulation. A confidential poll that seriously contradicts the public ones won’t stay private for long, or else is probably fake.
One can learn which pollsters work exclusively for Democrats, and which are exclusively Republican, by joining the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), which accepts non-Americans and meets in the US. Of course, don’t expect secrets such as the weaknesses of their clients. (The proper way to learn an opponent’s weaknesses, as well as strengths, is to do one’s own poll about the opponent.) There’s also the World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR), which meets worldwide, and has an Asia-Pacific chapter; prominent members of AAPOR also join WAPOR.
Every serious American politician, regardless of party, studies the polls, and thereby understands the reasons for the results of the Nov. 3 election. It might be that Trump is an exception. How will Republican politicians, learning from their recent defeat, rescue themselves in spite of him?
What about opinions in the world as a whole? I feel sure that people in democratic countries also appreciate the American electorate. I think people in the least developed countries would very much welcome moves by the new Democratic majorities in the US Congress to correct the very serious specific error of dismantling the US Agency for International Development.
I wonder if there is a way for the US Democrats to reverse Trump’s shocking directive this year that US executive departments and agencies withdraw from 66 international organizations—31 from the United Nations and 35 from non-UN entities—“that operate contrary to US national interests, security, economic prosperity, or sovereignty” (Presidential Memorandum of 1/7/26, whitehouse.gov). Is some real estate mogul hoping for the UN to put its premises in Manhattan, New York City, on the market?
The people of Canada and of Greenland are probably cheering from becoming safer from Trumpism than Ukraine is from Putinism and Taiwan is from Xi-ism. The advantage of Putin and Xi, not available to Trump and surely envied by him, is their being virtual presidents-for-life, due to their authoritarian control over their respective people.
On the other hand, a weakness of both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, in my view, is their intolerance of independent polling of their people’s opinions about any political matter, including the quality of their governance. The absence of independent, multiple polling in a country on this basic topic is a sign that its government lacks the confidence to allow the findings to be publicly disclosed.
Russia and China have the technology for scientific political polling. Over the years, I have met several of their scientists, very capable and decent persons, but all needing official permission to operate. China has private companies that do market research surveys, but the questionnaires must pass inspection to ensure that no political items are included.
I think that the knowledge, attitudes and opinions of the Chinese people on issues regarding the West Philippine Sea, in particular, are things that the Chinese government doesn’t dare to find out.
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