Leni vs Sara in 2028

The election season has arrived early. The election fever has begun spreading prematurely, infecting political actors more than two years before the scheduled May 2028 elections in our country. In one political camp, its long-expected candidate has openly declared her intent to run for the presidency. In the opposite political camp, a trial balloon has been released to subtly introduce an endorsement of another candidate.

Vice President Sara Duterte started spreading the political fever by openly declaring that she will run for president in 2028. It’s clear that VP Sara made the premature declaration in order to frame the current move to impeach her as politically motivated. If she is convicted after an impeachment trial in the Senate, VP Sara will be disqualified from running for any elective position. If VP Sara resigns before any impeachment judgment is handed down, either of two scenarios will happen: 1. the impeachment case will be dismissed and VP Sara will be able to run for the 2028 presidential election, or 2. the impeachment trial will still be allowed to proceed on the premise that the Senate retains the authority to decide whether or not the penalty of permanent disqualification from any government post should be imposed on VP Sara. In the second scenario, the Supreme Court is expectedly to be summoned to decide on the issue.

The trial balloon was released when President Marcos went to Naga City to meet with Mayor Leni Robredo, ostensibly to turn over funding for the rehabilitation of the Jesse M. Robredo Coliseum, which is located along Benigno and Corazon Aquino Avenue in that city. Mr. Marcos denied that there was talk of politics in his meeting with the city mayor, and that the most political thing he did was to wear pink socks “in honor of Mayor Leni.”

Apparently, the media took Mr. Marcos’ word for it, believing that there was no political agenda in the meeting. Even the public did not give any political meaning to the meeting, if we judge by the lack of buzz insinuating that a political alliance and a presidential candidate were trial ballooned in that meeting.

Mr. Marcos and Robredo may deny it at this time, but an incumbent President will not descend from Malacañang, travel all the way to Naga City, wear pink socks, and meet publicly with his erstwhile contender in the past two elections that were bitterly fought without intending to trial balloon a political alliance and an endorsement of the presidential candidacy of Robredo. Add to the mix the factor that the Marcos camp has not been grooming a presidential successor from its ranks, and the fact that the Marcoses direly need (for their own physical survival) to have someone—other than VP Sara—to succeed as president in 2028, and we have all the ingredients to prove that an alliance and endorsement are being cooked and will be served formally to the public in due time.

The place, which felt that a monumental alliance was in the offing, and which responded to the solicitation of public reaction to the candidacy of Robredo for the presidency, was cyberspace. Trolls and influencers from both sides of the political fence have been at each other’s throats since the outright declaration of candidacy of VP Sara and the trial balloon of an endorsement made by Mr. Marcos in favor of Robredo. Since then, trolls and influencers have been working overtime promoting or discrediting either VP Sara or Robredo.

The Marcos administration will inevitably be blamed for the economic hardship that will be caused by the Middle East crisis, if it lingers indefinitely. Because of this, Robredo’s alliance with the Marcos camp may be seen as a handicap, but this may be tempered by the advantage of the incumbent government’s access to logistics, resources, manpower, and political networks. On the other hand, VP Sara will be negatively impacted by any evidence of corruption that will come out of the impeachment trial against her, and by the reprehensible details of multiple murders that will come out in her father’s expected trial in the International Criminal Court.

It’s good that Robredo will be the anti-Duterte candidate for the 2028 presidential election. She remains the strongest candidate who has a better chance of giving VP Sara a good fight among all the names that are being floated as potential presidential candidates. She is also the total opposite of VP Sara in terms of track record, intellect, charisma, reputation, and demeanor.

A one-on-one contest for the presidency between Robredo and VP Sara will highlight totally different directions for the country. The deep hope is that the Filipino electorate will vote on the basis of the candidates’ character, qualifications, proven experience, and the dreams they have for our long-forsaken country.