Meaningful economic targeting

To truly understand what is happening to the people’s economic well-being, it is necessary to measure it realistically, regularly, consistently, and continuously. This process of building up relevant and meaningful data, is important for discovering the changes from the past, understanding the process of economic history, and making decisions for the future.

Poverty. In the first place, one should use reliable data about poverty. In the early 1980s, three of every four Filipino families rated themselves as Mahirap/Poor. By the 1990s, the proportion was moving ruggedly, in both directions, yet trending downward—to a record low 38 percent in 2019—until abruptly halted by the pandemic. But after the pandemic poverty surged anew, and has been about half of the population since mid-2024. (see “Persistent poverty,” 1/10/26, and “Self-Rated Poverty (SRP) at 51% on November 24-30. 2025; Borderline at 12%, Not Poor at 37%,” sws.org, 1/9/26)

Unfortunately, the official estimates of the gross national product (GNP), gross domestic product, and gross national income, or the “de kahon” indicators of the establishment, give no inkling about this history; they are overly focused on production growth (see “Numbers that hardly matter,” 11/22/25; and “What for, GNP?” 10/11/25.) The official poverty estimates always understate the needs of the people and are years out of date (“‘Kuripot’ economics,” 12/6/25). The general public, and the poor in particular, don’t know anything about GNP statistics; there’s no need, since they have nothing to gain.

The good news, however, is that the Borderline Poor have shrunk, while the Not Poor have grown to a record 37 percent as of last November. I see the Not Poor as the basis for the new Filipino middle class. I think that medium-term targets of 35 percent Poor, 15 percent Borderline, and 50 percent Not Poor are modest and attainable.

Hunger. The experience of involuntary hunger among families fluctuates in line with poverty, though not in fixed proportions over time (which is a discovery in itself). It has gone from as low as 5 percent to as high as 30 percent (in the pandemic). It does not trend downward by nature. Anytime that hunger is in single digits is good news; which is not the case now (“Hunger eases slightly from 22.0% in September 2025 to 20.1% in November 2025,” sws.org, 1/14/26). Specially commissioned surveys show that feeding programs and general cash transfer programs — like the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program—do work in helping the poor, if implemented properly; but, given the scale of poverty, they need to be scaled up. Note that only SWS has regular quarterly national surveys of poverty and hunger in the Philippines.

The differential effect of economic progress. Although aggregate growth in the value of production is always positive in real terms (corrected for inflation), not everyone, and not even most people, benefits from it. Some times are good, when the gainers outnumber the losers, and some times are bad, when the opposite happens, like in the last half of 2025. (“Fourth Quarter 2025 Social Weather Survey: Gainers minus Losers at -7, down from-2 in September 2025,” sws.org, 11/30/25)

The gainers-losers difference generally works against the poor: last November’s -11 breaks down to +11 among the Not Poor, -11 among the Borderline, and -13 among the Poor. The optimists-pessimists difference has the same pattern, which is sad but realistic—why can’t progress be evenly distributed? Why should it always be the rich that have a higher chance of getting richer? (“No lack of optimism now,” 9/27/25). Surveys of gainers/losers and optimists/pessimists are done quarterly by both the Social Weather Stations (SWS) and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas; the numbers can be checked against each other.

The 2026 SWS Survey Review. This will be held on Thursday, Feb. 19, from 2 to 4 p.m., at the auditorium of the SWS Knowledge Center, 52 Malingap Street, Sikatuna Village, Quezon City. It is the 26th of the series since 2001, reviewing the past year from the perspective of the SWS surveys on economic and social well-being, morale, and sentiments on governance, democracy, public safety, and security. There will be a presentation by Gerardo “Jay” Sandoval, SWS vice president/COO, followed by the views of distinguished discussants. Open to the public, for free; reserve a seat for personal attendance or register for Zoom via swsnet@sws.org.ph or (632) 8924-4465/56; or contact leo.laroza@sws.org.ph.

Of course, a general survey review has many other topics, especially political ones, that are juicy for social analysts. But I’m an economist, so I limit this column to my own field.