Measuring Christmas cheer
The Social Weather Stations (SWS) Christmas Eve report—Fourth Quarter 2024 Social Weather Survey: 65 percent of adult Filipinos expect a happy Christmas, down from 73 percent in 2023 (www.sws.org.ph, 12/24/24)—is, unfortunately, not too merry and bright.
Seen in line with 21 earlier surveys, the new percentages of 65 happy, 10 sad, and 26 neither happy nor sad, based on Dec. 12 to 18 fieldwork, are disappointing. Holiday expectations of Filipinos have been much more cheerful before. (The full time-series is in the new release.)
The new round is the 22nd SWS survey on Christmas cheer since 2002. The very first SWS national survey on holiday expectations was fielded 22 years ago, from Nov. 15 to Dec. 2, 2002. (Counting the starting year and the ending year, the new one should have been the 23rd survey, but the 2018 round was inadvertently skipped.)
In 2002, 82 percent expected their Christmas (ang inyong Pasko) to be happy (masaya), only 3 percent said it would be sad (malungkot), and 15 percent said it would be neither happy nor sad. That year has turned out to be the most joyful year in the entire survey series, so far, but no one could have known that.
The pioneering 2002 survey also probed into respondents’ Christmas the previous year (2001), with 83 percent recalling that it was happy, 5 percent saying it was sad, and 11 percent saying it was neither happy nor sad (SWS 4th Quarter 2002 survey: Filipinos are happy with Christmas 2002, thankful for good health, and hopeful about 2003, www.sws.org.ph, 12/20/2002). Subtracting ”sad” from ”happy” gives ”net happy” of +78 for recalled Christmas 2001, and +79 for Christmas 2002.
The SWS decided to do the holiday survey annually. In the survey anticipating Christmas 2003, the expectation percentages were 77 happy, 4 sad, and 20 neither happy nor sad, giving a ”net happy” of +73, a few points less.
In 2004-2013, the happy Christmas percentages were all in the 60s. In the next 10 years, the happy percentage ranged between 62 (2005, 2006, 2013) and 69 (2010). Clearly, there was a comedown in holiday spirit from 2002-2003. Since it lasted a whole decade, it seemed normal, while the earlier years seemed special.
Then, in 2014-2019, the happy Christmas percentages were in the 70s again. They rose steadily from 71 in 2014 to 79 in 2019—nice numbers, lasting half a decade and approaching the initial rate of 82.
But then came the pandemic in 2020. SWS reported on Christmas Eve: Fourth Quarter 2020 Social Weather Survey: Record-low 50 percent of adult Filipinos expect a happy Christmas (www.sws.org.ph, 12/24/20). Those expecting a sad Christmas were a record-high of 15 percent, giving a small ”net happy” of only +35.
The following year, 2021, the percentage ”happy” rebounded to 65; with ”sad” at 8, the ”net happy” recovered to +57. The happy rate recovered further to 73 in 2022 (net +66), was again 73 in 2023 (net +67), and gave me hope for full recovery to the 2019 pre-pandemic holiday spirit soon. So, I am disappointed that: (1) the 2024 happy-Christmas percentage has flopped back to 65, where it was in 2021, the first post-pandemic year; and (2) the 2024 sad—Christmas percentage is now 10—only the fourth time in double-digits in the entire series—from 6 last year, bringing ”net happy” to +55, or below the +57 of 2021.
I wonder if the shortage of holiday cheer is related to other problems (see my “Backsliding in hunger,” 10/26/24; and “Self-Rated poverty stays high,” 10/12/24). This bears study when the final 2024 hunger and poverty data come in.
Christmas cheer varies by location and schooling. The 2024 percentages expecting a happy Christmas are 58 in the National Capital Region (NCR), 59 in Balance Luzon, 71 in the Visayas, and 73 in Mindanao, which is a common pattern. In the 22 surveys of 2002-2024, the lowest happy rate has been in NCR 20 times; the highest percentage has been in Mindanao 13 times, and in Visayas nine times.
Compared to 2023, the percentage expecting a happy Christmas had large drops in NCR and Balance Luzon, and a medium-sized drop in Visayas, but virtually no change in Mindanao.
The 2024 happy-Christmas rate is consistently related to schooling (a proxy for social class): only 57 among elementary dropouts, rising to 70 among college graduates. But its fall since 2023 is similar for all schooling classes.
My hunches about the 2024 weakness in Christmas cheer: inflation has not been lowered enough, workers’ wages have not risen enough, and cash transfers have not been large enough and/or targeted well enough.
Happy New Year to all!
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Contact: mahar.mangahas@sws.org.ph
