Midterms decided at the start

When the dust settles next week, after the results of the midterm elections are revealed, it may just turn out that this election was decided the moment both main contenders—the administration of Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. and the administration-in-waiting of Sara Z. Duterte—formed their senatorial slates. In a nutshell, the establishment, represented by the administration, left nothing to chance, while the newcomers couldn’t create enough political coherence to mount a credible threat. After all, what the midterm elections are about is that they serve as a referendum on the incumbent president.

By most measures, if you go by the credible survey firms, no one worth their political salt can ignore the administration can expect to win eight out of 12 Senate seats. The remaining four are divided between those considered candidates of Rodrigo R. Duterte, namely Bong Go and Bato dela Rosa, and those considered those of his daughter, the Vice President. Her clout will be measured, ultimately, according to whether Imee Marcos and Camille Villar, both of whom have bet big on rescuing their candidacies by doubling down on support for the Veep, make it or not.

To make things more exciting, the present midterms have been framed as a case of the administration buckling at the knees when confronted by headwinds from the Duterte base, outraged by the treatment given to the former president and the current Veep. There are many reasons to be skeptical of this frame, ranging from the absence of any real, nationwide, and Metro Manila-specific protests, to the snapshots of public opinion that reveal a slim majority going along with the trial of the former president and a plurality open to the impeachment of the Veep.

Much has been of the rise of individual senators, particularly Go, as revealing a pro-Duterte second wind; but Go was unique in single-handedly cornering a powerful electoral issue for himself—that of public health—by presenting himself as “Mr. Malasakit.” The real measure, however, of whether there is a solid Duterte constituency capable of being mobilized, is the ultimate fate of the slate identified with the father and the daughter.

Here, the blunt reality was revealed at the start of the campaign. The Dutertes couldn’t come up with a unified slate and, in the end, never could. Imee Marcos, if she wins, will owe the Veep, but owe nothing to Honeylet Avanceña who refused to endorse her. However, it turns out the question will always remain: What if both had endorsed her? If you look at the reputable surveys, you can argue every candidate in the two Duterte slates did better after the arrest of the former president. But if the candidates were token ones to begin with, then nothing could have made them viable. And nothing has. The three most interesting—Rodante Marcoleta, Willie Revillame, and Philip Salvador—owe as much and possibly even more, to the Iglesia ni Cristo and their showbiz personas, as they do to their Duterte affiliation.

The central core of the administration slate, composed of proven vote-getters, proved from the start (when they decided to coalesce with the administration) that in terms of what would be a winning identification and machinery (not to mention financing), the side to beat would be that of the Palace. In a sense, it made for an unexciting but rock-solid slate, where what mattered less was the actual popularity of the president, and instead, what the administration possessed that its opponents lacked: cohesion and resources.

At a time when the economy is not the best, the most surprising thing is the overwhelming lack of differentiation among the candidates, where most campaigned on a kind of generic “jobs and the economy” messaging platform while very few struck out and campaigned on other things (Go on health, Dela Rosa on crime, Bam Aquino on education: even Francis Pangilinan possibly could have done better if he was more specific about food). In such a situation, again, the administration could count on name recall and some sort of residual standing in the eyes of the people for its candidates compared to those affiliated with other slates.

Of course, there is one aspect that overshadows even the entrenched nature of midterms as presidential plebiscites: that is, the midterms as the opening act in impeachment. But here, the old Marcosian maxim can still hold: “Nothing succeeds like success!” If there is no repudiation of the administration in this midterm, then holding LGUs and the House, and with a majority in the Senate, impeachment may not be such an uphill climb. But let’s not forget the one thing setting aside the future prosecution from those we saw in the past: competence.