New ways of listening to voters

The recent United States presidential election serves complex lessons, unpacked by analysts and pundits in countless ways. It offers crucial insights not only for American politics but for elections worldwide, especially those aiming to deepen their democratic processes.

One lesson from the US election is how far actual results diverged from opinion polls. Polls consistently painted a close race, yet Donald Trump triumphed decisively over Kamala Harris, winning both the popular and electoral votes across all battleground states. This disconnect reveals an overreliance on polling as an indicator of victory, exposing its inherent flaws and limitations.

In many elections, including the US, opinion polls focus on voter awareness and preferences, yet they often miss the mark by failing to capture the core motivations behind voter choices. Voters aren’t primarily driven by lofty ideals like democracy, equality, or social justice, which many politicians romanticize. Instead, voters act out of tangible, immediate needs: economic hardship, access to health care, disaster resilience, and basic survival. The disconnect between macro-level economic indicators (e.g., gross domestic product) and the lived experiences of constituents at the grassroots is stark, with grassroots frustrations often unheard by policymakers.

In the recent US election, the optics seemed clear. Harris attracted massive, enthusiastic rallies, while Trump’s events occasionally appeared lackluster, with visible signs of frustration among attendees. Yet, similar to the Philippine election of Leni Robredo, where a vibrant rally presence didn’t translate into votes, public enthusiasm can be misleading. American political veterans like Barack Obama reminded supporters that “boos don’t count, votes do,” underscoring the need for a more grounded understanding of voter intentions.

Politicians often view voter behavior through the lens of opinion polls, stereotyping voter concerns based on demographic labels or imagined ideals. This narrow approach leads to significant miscalculations, as it fails to account for the immediate, visceral challenges voters face—such as putting food on the table or securing stable shelter. To close this gap, politicians must find ways to tune into the grassroots and hear the real issues that shape voter behavior. The rise of social media has amplified diverse voices, yet also cluttered the landscape with misinformation, making it harder for leaders to discern genuine issues.

To truly engage voters, politicians need more than just opinion polls. Tools like photovoice and photo elicitation offer innovative ways to capture and respond to community needs. These participatory research methods invite community members to photograph their daily experiences, sparking discussions that reveal deeper insights into their lives. For example, candidates could use photovoice to uncover barriers to education or health care in rural areas, such as inadequate transportation or hidden child labor. This approach moves candidates beyond surface-level engagement, creating a genuine stake for communities in the electoral process.

The demographic profile of the Filipino electorate highlights these complexities. With 4.8 million new voters registered as of July 2024, the total electorate by 2025 may reach up to 68 million. A significant portion of voters, aged 18 to 35, reflects a youthful, economically diverse population. These citizens prioritize issues like inflation, job stability, accessible health care, and quality education. Many voters operate on “diskarte”—the Filipino term for a savvy, strategic approach to problem-solving, where they vote for candidates perceived as assertive and effective.

Politicians need tools beyond public opinion polls to create policies that resonate deeply. Focus group discussions offer qualitative insights, but newer methods like photovoice and photo elicitation capture the richness of voter experiences and translate them into tangible policy ideas. These methods allow politicians to see the everyday “pains” of their electorate, translating them into meaningful platforms.

Politicians with strong, visually anchored branding among constituents tend to resonate more effectively than those who rely on abstract ideals like “human rights” or “gender equality.” The most compelling candidates will harness these new tools, bridging the gap between abstract ideals and the concrete needs of the electorate.

The lessons from the US election underscore the importance of connecting at a deeper level, using technology and participatory methods to reveal the realities that shape voter behavior. Photovoice, photo elicitation, and other empathetic approaches can bridge the gap between politicians and the people they serve, helping to align public policy more closely with the public will. Only then will political leaders truly understand and respond to the needs of their constituents, creating a democracy that listens as well as it leads.

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