Peace, not weapons, in the 2025 polls

Mohagher Iqbal, chief negotiator of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and Minister of Basic, Higher, and Technical Education, stated that Moro rebels will not decommission their remaining arms until all conditions of the peace agreement are fulfilled. He remarked in an interview with Kyodo News in September that “very little has been delivered by the government.”

Iqbal’s declaration means the MILF will keep their guns until the May 2025 polls, which is also the first parliamentary election in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM). The yardstick for determining what constitutes “enough” in the decommissioning process appears to be a shifting standard, understood primarily by the MILF.

The problem of illicit weapons and their use is not limited to the Bangsamoro region; it is pervasive throughout the country. The Philippine National Police recorded a staggering 10,936 gun-related incidents between 2022 and the first quarter of 2024, highlighting the urgency of addressing this critical issue. The latest Conflict Alert report showed 5,028 violent incidents due to illicit weapons from 2011 to 2023. This accounts for nearly 84 percent of the total incidents across conflict causes, and 96 percent of deaths.

A total of 11,672 people were killed in 16,288 violent incidents due to other causes involving illegal guns. On average, three persons die each day from gun-related violence. In the Bangsamoro, most shooting incidents occurred in Maguindanao, the political center of the BARMM, and where the main military bases of the MILF-BIAF are located.

This conflict picture foreshadows the violence that could happen in the Bangsamoro region in the 2025 political battle. Although Iqbal gives assurance that “the MILF will not use its guns to terrorize voters,” there is no guarantee that they won’t respond if attacked by another armed group or political rival. The MILF still has in its arsenal the remaining un-decommissioned arms excluded from the decommissioning program, categorized as weapons personally owned by MILF commanders, combatants, and their families. The total number remains undisclosed, even to their peace partners.

To mitigate the risk of probable poll violence, several measures can be implemented at the local, regional, and national levels.

One, it’s urgent to implement stricter gun control to curtail the proliferation of illegal firearms. Some local government units have been at the forefront of these efforts, with Basilan having a program to stencil and register loose firearms in 2023. MILF chair and BARMM chief minister Ahod “Al Haj Murad” Ebrahim himself acknowledged the program’s potential to bolster security in the region and support the broader objectives of disarmament and transition.

It is in the MILF’s best interest to avoid involvement in gun-related violence. They can uphold the rule of law and peaceful governance by completing the final phase of the decommissioning process; facilitating the inventory of firearms excluded from the decommissioning process as initial step to legitimize ownership, possession and carrying of weapons, and discipline its troops. A serious concern is the involvement of MILF commanders and members in violent incidents—in internal schisms and feuds with other clans and identity groups, such as the non-Moro Indigenous Peoples. Conflict Alert’s 13-year panel data from 2011 to 2023 recorded MILF-affiliated individuals involved in 433 violent incidents and 494 deaths.

Two, the Commission on Elections should consider extending the gun ban beyond election day. The PNP has echoed this recommendation, stressing the importance of a gun ban to deter violence before, during, and after the 2025 polls. The deadliest example of election-related violence is the November 2009 Ampatuan Massacre, which happened during the filing of candidacy. The 2023 Barangay and Sangguniang Kabataan elections, regarded as the deadliest in Bangsamoro history, also serve as a stark reminder of the persistent issue of gun-related violence.

Third, multistakeholder action is paramount, including continued autonomous monitoring of gun-related violence to provide crucial evidence to shape peace-building practice, and to aid policymaking on curbing such violence. Media outlets must collaborate to prevent the spread of fake news that could ignite gun-related violence.

Lastly, communities and clans must work together to mediate violent feuds in a timely manner to deter revenge and prevent polarization during elections, a powder keg for armed clashes.

Iqbal’s declaration, “We will not use our weapons to terrorize voters,” could be a unifying slogan among political parties in the 2025 elections. A public covenant based on this commitment would be a powerful statement of intent, fostering a climate of trust and security as the elections draw near.

Ed Quitoriano is senior adviser of the Council for Climate and Conflict Action-Asia and principal consultant of Visus Consulting.