Persistent poverty

The latest percentage of households rating themselves as Mahirap/Poor was 51, as of the end of November (“Fourth Quarter 2025 Social Weather Survey: Self-Rated Poverty (SRP) at 51% on November 24-30, 2025; Borderline at 12%, Not Poor at 37%,” www.sws.org.ph, 1/9/26). Together with the earlier numbers of 52 in March, 49 in June, and 50 in September, the average for 2025 is 50.

Self-Rated Poverty (SRP) has not yet recovered to the prepandemic situation. Last year’s average of 50 is much improved from the 57 in 2024, but still worse than the averages of 48 in 2023, 48 in 2022, and 46 in 2021. It is also worse than the 48 in November 2020 (when SRP was surveyed, as soon as the transport lockdown was lifted).

In prepandemic times, the average SRP was 45 in 2019, 48 in 2018, 46 in 2017, and 44 in 2016. The all-time low was 38, in March 2019, the one and only time that it fell to the 30s. The all-time high was 74 percent, in July 1985; but it was in the 70s three more times, as late as February 1992.

There are now 183 national surveys of SRP on record, since the very first one in April 1983 which found poverty at 55 percent. The most common numbers have been 60s and 50s; what we need are more numbers in the 40s and 30s. See any Social Weather Stations (SWS) poverty report for updated tables and charts.

Mere economic growth has not done enough to reduce poverty. From the 1980s to the present, the value of aggregate economic production per person, and adjusted for price inflation, has tripled. That’s a very substantial degree of growth. In the process, the proportion of Filipinos feeling poor fell from three-fourths to half. We are thankful for that, but I think we could have done better. Who can be satisfied with having lowered poverty to half of the Filipino people?

Statistical analysis of time-series data shows that the most significant correlate with poverty is the rate of inflation, followed by the rate of joblessness. The effect of growth in the gross national product is insignificant by itself.

The good news is that the Borderline group has shrunk, and the Not Poor has expanded. As of November 2025, those on the borderline are only 12 percent, while the Not Poor are 37 percent. I think it is the Not Poor who are growing the middle class, and leaving the Poor and Borderline behind.

In the Social Weather Surveys of 2025, the Not-Poor range is from 36 to 41 percent, whereas it was from 23 to 30 percent in 2024. The Borderline were from 10 to 12 percent in 2025, versus from 11 to 30 percent in 2024. Inequality is widening between the Poor and the Not Poor, but narrowing between the Not Poor and the Borderline.

The trend of Self-Rated Food Poverty—feeling that one’s food is mahirap—follows that of general SRP. The Food-Poor are 40 percent, which is shamefully high, but the Food Borderline are only 11 percent, and the Not Food-Poor are 49 percent.

The SRP surveys are the best means of keeping track of poverty. They include the people’s thresholds of minimum home expenses so as not to feel poor in general, and not to feel that the family’s food is poor. The numbers are different in Metro Manila from the Balance of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao, in keeping with the cost of living. The family’s needs for regular transportation expenses to work and school, for internet, and for mobile load—which are costs of earning—are also given; consult the SWS website for details.

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Missing from public data are the wage rates of common laborers and those lacking basic education. To me, the main problem of Philippine economic development is the probable stagnation of the real wages actually being received—as distinct from the legal minimum wages—of the lower classes. I say “probable” because such data, which I think are being gathered quarterly by the official labor force surveys, are unavailable to the public.

As of the November 2025 SWS survey, the schooling distribution of Filipino adults is as follows: up to some elementary, 10 percent; elementary graduate and up to some junior high school, 27 percent; JHS grad and some vocational, 30 percent; some senior high school/SHS grad/vocational grad/some college, 22 percent; and college grad/post college, 11 percent.

How can the 37 percent with less than JHS schooling earn enough to escape poverty? Are there any plans for how wages in the lower deciles are going to increase in the future? Can our political, business, and social leaders be content with the long-term persistence of poverty?

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mahar.mangahas@sws.org.ph.