Post-election trial favors Sara Duterte
Last Friday, I was with Attorneys Christian Monsod, Neri J. Colmenares, and Domingo Egon Cayosa as panelists in a forum on the upcoming impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte. The forum was held at the Adamson University Theater, with about 400 participants – students, faculty, media, and others, mainly from Manila universities.
Early in the forum, when the meaning of “forthwith” was being discussed, Chairman Monsod directly addressed the audience: “Who wants the Senate to immediately begin the impeachment trial?” Without hesitation, at least 90 percent raised their hands.
It was a lively debate moderated by Adamson’s Law Dean, Ada Abad, who focused on the constitutional and legal issues that resonated with the legal community. In the open forum, there were two lines for those commenting and asking questions. In each of the left and right aisles, participants quickly lined up, and even when the 30-minute open forum ended, there were still about 10 participants waiting for their turn. This was an indication that we may be underestimating public support for an early impeachment trial.
The panelists agreed with the audience that the impeachment trial should start “forthwith” and does not require a presidential call to a special session as the Senate’s impeachment trial duty is a quasi-judicial task that is not tied to legislative sessions and does not depend on executive or judicial actions to trigger. That the Senate chooses to hold the trial after the May elections is, clearly, a matter of individual discretion among the senators.
There was agreement in the forum that the delay in the trial works to the advantage of the respondent in marshaling support and resources, both internal and foreign, to modify the stakes in the ongoing election process as well as the overall climate of public opinion in her favor.
After the forum, I tried to work out the possible scenarios and their consequences for better and wider public appreciation, and here’s what I got:
This scenario matrix suggests that ultimately, the Marcos administration and the Filipino people will benefit from a quicker trial to eliminate Duterte’s 2028 viability, while Duterte benefits from delaying the process to rebuild public support. Deciding how to proceed with the impeachment should turn on consequences for the nation, not on the consequences for personal senatorial political fortunes.
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