Poverty fell slightly in 2026 Q2

Last week’s media release of Social Weather Stations (SWS) was: “Self-Rated Poverty fell by 3%, while Self-Rated Food Poverty fell by 6% between March and June 2026,” www.sws.org.ph, 8/14/26. Today’s column title says that general poverty (the family being mahirap or poor) fell “slightly,” since three points is the limit of statistical significance for the size of the SWS sample. On the other hand, the 6-point fall in food poverty (the family’s food being mahirap) was very significant.

The survey instrument is critical. Both types of poverty are surveyed by a field interviewer’s showing the respondent (called R) a card containing the words MAHIRAP and HINDI MAHIRAP, separated by a narrow line, and asking R to simply point to the family’s position on the card. The interviewer is trained to NOT READ the card orally to R, and also NOT to mention that there is a line in it. Of course, she—SWS field interviewers are 100 percent female—cannot give her understanding of the word “mahirap”; if R asks, she is trained to answer that whatever it means to R is fine.

This survey technique was developed by myself and others at the Development Academy of the Philippines (see “Social indicators research at 50,” inquirer.net, 7/18/26), and adopted in other surveys under me, until becoming permanent at SWS from 1986 onward. Any other survey using the term “self-rated poverty” is not comparable unless it follows the same technique.

Every SWS report on Self-Rated Poverty (SRP) describes the technique fully, in Filipino and English. (An SWS national survey uses four other Philippine languages; all versions are available on request.) The SWS SRP time series go back to 1986; pre-SWS results of 1983-1985 are included in the media releases. The SWS data were initially twice a year, and became quarterly for general poverty in 1992, and quarterly for food poverty in 2001.

The line on the card is meaningful to the people. From our earliest trials, we have discovered that so many Rs associate their family with the line. We have always encoded such answers, giving rise to three groups of Poor, Not Poor, and Borderline. Long ago, the Poor were a great majority, followed by many who were Borderline, and then the fewest were the Not Poor.

But in recent years the Poor have fallen to a plurality, followed by the Not Poor, and the Borderline have become the fewest. In the latest survey of June 2026, the Not Poor were a substantial 37 percent, and the Borderline are only 14 percent. With respect to the quality of the family’s food, the Not Food-Poor were a plurality 49 percent, the Food-Poor were 36 percent, and the Borderline Food-Poor were 15 percent.

The people are realistic in judging poverty. After asking for the family’s position on the show card, the interview asks those who consider themselves Poor how much is the minimum they would need for monthly home expenses in order not to be that way anymore; this gives the Self-Rated Poverty Threshold of poor people themselves, in money terms. The interviewer explains to the R that home expenses exclude costs of commuting to work and school, of mobile phone load, and of internet—all of which are the costs of earning, not of living. The next question is: how much do they lack in home expenses in order to reach this threshold—which gives the Self-Rated Poverty Gap.

The poverty thresholds and poverty gaps depend, firstly, on the size of the family. Secondly, they vary by location in accordance with the cost of living. In the National Capital Region (NCR), for June 2026, the median poverty threshold is P21,000 per month, which I would say is quite realistic. In the NCR, the median poverty gap is P10,000, about half of what the poor need, still far away. The counterpart median poverty thresholds/gaps in other areas are: Balance Luzon, P12,500/5,000; Visayas, P10,000/5,000; and Mindanao, P10,000/5,000.

The corresponding poverty thresholds and gaps for Self-Rated Food Poverty in each area are: NCR, P15,000/5,000; Balance Luzon, P5,000/2,000; Visayas, P6,000/2,000; and Mindanao, P5,000/2,000. These seem reasonable. Poor Filipinos, everywhere, do not ask for the moon; what they lack is not a small part of their need.

The SWS surveys are intended for time series analysis. The SWS poverty numbers are not occasional, but regular. They are done quarterly so as to compete with economic growth statistics for attention. They should be analyzed in the context of all available historical data.

It is a relief to see the poverty percentage down again in the 40s, for the first time after being in the 50s for three consecutive quarters; but it is still far off from its historical best of 38 percent, which was back in March 2019. The last time the annual average poverty rate was in the 40s was its 48 of 2023, three years ago.

It is likewise good to find the food-poverty percentage back in the 30s, after being in the 40s for eight consecutive quarters. Its historical best was 27 percent, also in March 2019. The last time the annual average food-poverty rate was in the 30s was its 38 of 2023. In fact, the June 2026 poverty and food-poverty rates are not as low as those of 2021-23. The years 2024 and 2025 were setbacks. The year of least poverty was 2019.

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mahar.mangahas@sws.org.ph.

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