Preparing for the unpredictable
The geography of the Philippines is both a blessing and a curse. We are rich in natural resources, but we are also highly susceptible to natural hazards. And when a vulnerable community is exposed to natural hazards, we get a disaster.
On June 8, a magnitude 7.8 earthquake struck off the coast of Sarangani, right on the first day of school. In less than a minute, everything changed, with 88 lives lost, hundreds injured, and structural collapses across multiple provinces.
Disasters do not just test our buildings, but also our leadership. The question is not if there will be earthquakes, but what our plan is for when calamity strikes. Allow me to share three acronyms to help us prepare our families, companies, and organizations.
Disasters as organizational and leadership challenges. The real danger of disasters is not just the natural hazard, but what happens after. Critical infrastructure fails together. The government is overwhelmed, not simply because of a lack of preparedness, but because the catastrophe outweighs the capacity for response. In light of these, we must view disaster preparedness as a leadership challenge.
Volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity (Vuca) was introduced in 1987 by the United States Army War College, based on the leadership theories by Warren Bennis and Burt Nanus shared in their book “Leaders: The Strategy for Taking Charge from 1985.” The concept was originally applied to the Cold War, but it is just as relevant for disasters resulting from natural hazards.
Volatility describes the unpredictability of conditions. Unlike typhoons, there is no way to monitor when an earthquake will strike. And when that happens, it takes only a few seconds of shaking to turn the world upside down.
Uncertainty is learning how to act and make decisions given that information is limited and scarce. You cannot afford to wait until you know everything before deciding to act and make decisions.
Complexity refers to how interconnected systems create cascading failures. One problem inevitably creates another, so how do you proceed knowing that you have to deal with multiple variables all at once?
Ambiguity is accepting the reality that there is no perfect solution. Even when information is available, it could be conflicting. The challenge is learning how to proceed even if the answer isn’t clearly cut.
In 2018, anthropologist Jamais Cascio introduced Brittle, anxious, nonlinear, incomprehensible (Bani) as a modern successor. Whereas Vuca deals with the nature of crisis, Bani views it through the lens of human nature and how the chaos shatters our illusions.
“Brittle” is the illusion of strength; “anxious” is the illusion of control; “nonlinear” is the illusion of predictability; and “incomprehensible” is the illusion of knowledge.
Disasters are psychological phenomena, just as much as they are physical events. When preparing for them, we must plan for emotional people who can act irrationally.
Perhaps the most important acronym to takeaway is Yoyo: You’re On Your Own. Given the realities about disasters and human nature, you really don’t have anyone to turn to for help except yourself.
In my book, “Towards Resilient Cities and Communities,” I shared practical tips on how you can prepare: Families and barangays should have updated emergency plans; identify the locations of fire extinguishers, escape routes, and evacuation centers, since fires usually follow after an earthquake; and always have a go bag containing essential items.
However, disaster preparedness doesn’t end once the first responders arrive. What will you do in the coming days, weeks, and months, for yourself, your family, and your organization? All it takes is one spark for everything to go up in flames.
On June 18, 2026, there was a condominium fire in Quezon City. Although residents were able to evacuate, they had to face a harsher reality: Many were hospitalized due to smoke inhalation, and everyone couldn’t return home until the building was deemed safe for occupancy.
The fire was not their fault, but a simple blaze from a garbage chute changed their lives forever.
Address hazards before they become disasters. As I always say, it is 90 percent less expensive to address hazards before they become disasters; aside from saving lives, property, and livelihood. Hazards refer to events with potential threat and danger. Disaster is what follows when hazards become reality.
Natural hazards such as typhoons and earthquakes are inevitable and beyond our control. However, disasters are artificial, for we are responsible for the decisions that determine the consequences.
There is a saying that goes, “If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.” That is why disaster preparedness must be proactive in nature, not reactive.
—————-
Architect-urban planner Felino “Jun” Palafox Jr. has 53 years of experience in architecture and 51 years in planning. He founded Palafox Associates and Palafox Architecture Group, which have completed over 2,000 projects in 41 countries and received more than 200 awards. He is also the first recipient of the UAP Dubai Awards Lifetime Achievement Award (2023).
