Preventing an El Niño crisis
The sweltering heat is no longer a warning: El Niño is here and already affecting several areas in the country.
In an advisory this week, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) has warned that the weather phenomenon is expected to intensify into a “very strong” El Niño between September and December, and will persist through the first half of 2027.
This extreme climate event—characterized by below-normal rainfall, prolonged dry spells, and drought—brings scorching heat and, with it, soaring electricity bills and dwindling water resources. But this goes beyond sweltering temperatures that inconvenience daily life—it could also result in deaths.
Researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab have ranked the Philippines ninth among 50 that will be most affected, with an estimated 6,500 additional extreme heat-related deaths.
A recent World Health Organization analysis has also placed the country among those that face very high health risks, from heat stroke and worsening chronic illnesses to malnutrition. It also warned that the dry season does not lower the risk of vector-borne diseases like dengue and chikungunya because water shortages can force households into storing water, and this could create potential mosquito breeding sites.
High food inflation
The impact extends to agriculture and the economy at a time when Filipinos are already dealing with high food inflation.
According to Pagasa, key agricultural areas are already experiencing El Niño, ranging from dry conditions and dry spells to drought. To be clear, the impact is different in every province or region. While Luzon, including Metro Manila, could still experience heavy rainfall and flooding, other parts of the country may already experience elevated temperatures.
Areas such as Bohol, Eastern Samar, and Leyte, which produce rice and other major crops in the Visayas, and Bukidnon—known as the “food basket of Mindanao”—are already seeing dry spells. Camarines Sur, known as the “rice granary of Bicol,” and Negros Oriental, which grows sugarcane, coconut, and other high-value crops, are already under drought.
These conditions will affect harvests, which means fewer supply going into the local market, which in turn could push prices up. Households are already stretching the peso’s value, and poor families will be hardest hit with further increases in food prices.
Vulnerable sectors
These findings and forecasts are hardly new because scientists have already warned about the climate patterns. They should have already guided the government to craft action plans ahead, and to be fair, a task force on El Niño has been in existence for three years.
However, it is one thing to create an interagency body and another to ensure that plans are followed through and backed by funding. Allocations for programs to help vulnerable sectors must also end up with intended beneficiaries instead of lining the pockets of corrupt politicians and government officials—a grim reality as seen through several national crises and corruption scandals.
The Department of Budget and Management said it has already released early this month P6.2 billion in fuel and fertilizer subsidies for eligible farmers and fisherfolk, with an additional P3.5 billion to be rolled out in the fourth quarter to construct solar irrigation facilities.
These allocations are for this year—but what about next year? The Department of Agriculture is still seeking the restoration of P10 billion under the Presidential Assistance for Farmers and Fisherfolk in next year’s national budget to sustain cash support to this sector.
Ripple effects
In addition, a hearing of the Senate committee on agriculture, food, and agrarian reform last week found that the National Irrigation Administration’s proposed P46.36 billion budget for next year is 27 percent lower than 2026. One of the items that saw a more than 50-percent reduction was funding for irrigation systems, a crucial factor in ensuring enough water supply for farmlands, especially during the heatwave.
These are just some of the budgetary issues that have been publicly discussed. Must farmers and fishermen, and other vulnerable sectors, wait until the crisis is already affecting them before the government extends assistance, when public funds are supposed to offer protection before disaster strikes?
A delayed government response would send ripple effects, carrying dire consequences for agriculture and food security. And those who will bear the brunt are low-income families, including the very farmers and fisherfolk who put food on our tables.
El Niño is not an unforeseen emergency when the warnings have already been there. The government must move with urgency and purpose to prevent its effects from blowing into a national emergency that could no longer be contained, leaving Filipinos once more on their own to bear the cost of its complacency.
