‘Project 2028’: Philippines unleashed (3)

If substantiated [and verified] by competent authorities, charges could be pressed against those who have been on China’s payroll,” Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. told me during our conversation for my “View from Manila” television show when asked about allegations against Vice President Sara Duterte and other members of the dynasty.

The allegations by former Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV have reawakened long-dormant fears over a “Manchurian Candidate” conspiracy. For almost a decade, the firebrand former senator alleged that the Davao-based Duterte dynasty thrived on a toxic cocktail of traditional politics (trapo) tactics, brutal iron-fist rule, and, potentially treasonously, a reliance on massive cash flows from agents of hostile foreign powers.

In particular, Trillanes alleged that the Chinese government funneled up to P319 million via proxies into the CALLE88 Foods Corp., a company linked to the Vice President’s spouse. Meanwhile, the Chinese Embassy in Manila donated up to P150 million to the Tapang at Malasakit Alliance for the Philippines Inc., which counts the Vice President among its trustees.

Worse, the former senator also alleged that members of the Duterte dynasty were basically on the payroll of Beijing via a suspected drug lord. Businessman Sammy Uy allegedly paid P181.6 million to key members of the political family, with the largest amount going to its youngest members. The Vice President’s camp has categorically denied the explosive allegations. Her spokesman characterized Trillanes’ claims as “malicious fabrications” and “ black propaganda.”

The Chinese Embassy was equally emphatic. “We strongly condemn and firmly oppose such malicious rhetoric and actions,” Chinese Embassy spokesperson Ji Lingpeng said in a statement. Unironically, it urged the relevant parties to refrain from “political manipulation” and letting domestic political squabbles poison bilateral ties.

Nevertheless, Trillanes’ allegations merit a serious examination by our authorities, regardless of whether they will be raised directly in the impeachment trial. Lest we forget, the Alice Guo scandal shows that “political manipulation” is already underway. Local offices and officials have been targeted and, in some cases, compromised by malign interference operations. According to intelligence sources, there are even attempts to manipulate survey agencies in addition to quasi-academic institutions, pop-up “think tanks,” and riffraff content creators along with washed-up and compromised pseudo-journalists.

During my research fellowship in Taiwan back in 2019 and throughout regular visits to the democratic island nation in succeeding years, it became clear to me that malign interference is now the new normal in geopolitics. China’s brazen incursions into Batanes last week—just months after a so-called “academic” gathering in China talked up a new shibboleth about supposed “ancient” sovereign claims over our northernmost islands—is yet another proof that the West Philippine Sea and Taiwan theaters have now consolidated into a single realm of contestation between us and Beijing.

What frontline democracies confront now is hybrid warfare that has a clear potential of turning into a kinetic one in the not-so-distant future. As John Czin, who previously led the China portfolio at Biden’s national security council, warns in a recent Foreign Affairs magazine article, Beijing’s leadership is under growing pressure to “reunify” with the self-ruling island nation by the end of this decade. After all, the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party is expected to win presidential races for the foreseeable future amid hardening of exclusively “Taiwanese” identity among the vast majority of the country’s residents.

United States President Donald Trump’s disastrous war in Iran, which has depleted much of America’s critical munitions and unleashed a global economic crisis, has only strengthened Beijing’s hands in our region. Worse, Iran’s successful military counterstrikes, including the “de-basification” of US military facilities across the Persian Gulf, could provide a tantalizing blueprint for the well-equipped People’s Liberation Army. “China is deriving [numerous] valuable lessons from the Iran War,” Czin told me in a recent interview for my “Deep Dive” podcast, where we discussed the implications of the so-called “Second Missile Age.” Midsized powers such as Iran have shown that “precise mass” —the ability to mass-produce and rapidly deploy affordable yet high-tech missiles and drones—could severely erode the West’s conventional military edge.

Moving forward, therefore, we need a “whole-of-society resilience” initiative and, crucially, systematic investment in our own “precise mass” defense production capacity, which doesn’t require the traditional top-heavy, multibillion platforms. I will discuss the precise contours of a new national defense strategy under a “Project 2028” comprehensive blueprint in my next column.

—————-

richard.heydarian@inquirer.net