Public opinion supports the ICC
In due time, Filipinos will be scientifically polled about the unprecedented arrest of ex-president Rodrigo Duterte last Tuesday, upon his arrival in Manila from Hong Kong, and then his speedy removal to the International Criminal Court (ICC), in The Hague.
Duterte is accused of crimes against humanity committed in the war on drugs conducted during his presidency. After investigating the charges, the ICC indicted him, and issued a warrant for his arrest. The arrest was carried out, with Philippine government cooperation, and next will be his trial by the ICC.
The Filipino people supported the ICC investigation. On its own account, i.e., without any sponsor, Social Weather Stations (SWS) included items about the ICC investigation in its national surveys of March 2023, December 2023, March 2024, and June 2024. In these four surveys, the dominant opinion on the ICC investigation was always one of approval.
The gross approval was between 49 and 59 percent, while gross disapproval was between 21 and 27 percent—the one-fourth that disapprove are nevertheless enough to muster rallies supportive of RRD, here or abroad. The undecided dwindled from 31 percent initially to 13 percent later. By last June, the net approval was +33, which to me is a clear sign that what the Filipino people want most is justice (see Slide 57, “2025 SWS Annual Survey Review or ASR,” https://tinyurl.com/2jehz2h9, presented at the Asian Institute of Management on 2/19/25).
In his capacity as president, Rodrigo Duterte was indeed very popular. During his term from mid-2016 to mid-2022, the quarterly ratings of satisfaction with his performance as president in the SWS surveys were at least Good (defined as net satisfaction of +30 to +49), and at times Very Good (+50 to +69) and even Excellent (+70 and up). They can be compared to the ratings of other presidents, from Corazon Aquino to Ferdinand Marcos Jr., in the SWS survey review.
However, at the same time, public opinion about Mr. Duterte’s War on Drugs was consistently unfavorable to him. I wrote several Inquirer columns on this, based on survey data: “Insecurity in neighborhoods rises,” 2/23/19; “Policemen as villains,” 3/2/19; “Data on EJKs and Chinese ‘friendship,’” 6/19/19; “Human rights in the drug war,” 1/18/20; and “Our unsafe country,” 11/2/24.
The administration’s initial success in reducing illegal drug usage was matched by universal public disapproval of the lethal means used to enforce Mr. Duterte’s will. In December 2018, 95 percent called it important that the police should capture drug suspects alive.
In six surveys in 2016-2018, only one in four Filipinos accepted the police claim of killing drug suspects only in self-defense, using the nanlaban excuse. The great majority believed that the police were involved in extra-judicial killings (EJKs), and that they planted evidence against the suspects they wanted to arrest.
Three out of four Filipinos were worried about becoming EJK victims themselves. Of those surveyed at the end of 2018, 12 percent said they knew an EJK victim personally—implying some 8 million cases of personal knowledge—as an acquaintance, a relative, a neighbor, a friend, or a workmate.
Despite so much violence during Duterte’s time, crime-victimization and public insecurity are presently high, and have been on the rise. Public safety has been on the regular SWS survey agenda from the very beginning. It is monitored by asking about (a) victimization by crime and (b) fear of crime in the neighborhood.
The victimization questions are on whether, in the past six months, any member of the household suffered burglary at home, pickpocketing/snatching on the street, or theft of a motor vehicle, and on whether any member of the family was hurt by physical violence. This was surveyed by SWS semi-annually in 1989-1991, and quarterly since 1992. In December 2024, 7 percent of families nationwide reported being victimized by a property crime, and 1 percent reported having suffered physical violence (Slide 59 of the 2025 ASR).
The fear questions are on whether, in their neighborhood, the people are usually afraid that their home might be broken into, are usually afraid to walk the streets at night, and notice that there are many drug addicts around (the first two items are quarterly since 1992; the third is quarterly since about 2007).
As of the latest SWS survey, in December 2024, the fear of home burglary is 62 percent; it had fallen to about 50 percent at the end of the Duterte period. Those afraid to walk the streets at night were 55 percent last December; it was down to about 40 percent by mid-2022. Those noticing too many drug addicts nearby were 50 percent last December; it was about 30 percent by mid-2022 (Slide 60 of the 2025 ASR). In short, feelings of neighborhood insecurity are presently high; there was slight improvement during the Duterte period, but it has already dissipated.
Under these circumstances, what might Filipinos be feeling about the fate of Rodrigo Duterte in The Hague? Watch for the next opinion polls.
