Quo vadis, BARMM?
The current political drama unfolding in the only autonomous region in the country—the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM)—has made us wait with bated breath for the new plots and twists that will happen in its forthcoming episodes.
On March 3, 2025, then BARMM Chief Minister Ahod Balawag Ebrahim, aka Kagi Murad, was reported to have resigned from his post as chief minister and as a member of the Bangsamoro Transition Authority (BTA), the interim parliament of the region. At that time, news reports noted that the former chief minister wanted to focus his attention on the BARMM’s first regular parliamentary elections scheduled for Oct. 13. Ebrahim is the No. 1 nominee of the United Bangsamoro Justice Party, the political party organized by the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF).
Ebrahim has led the region for the last five years, since its inception in 2019-2020.
But based on recent disclosures, such claims of Ebrahim, “voluntarily resigning” for the above reasons, were inaccurate, as recently claimed by Ebrahim himself.
As the date of the scheduled first parliamentary elections in the region was fast approaching, political operators allegedly acting on behalf of President Marcos delivered an ultimatum to the top leaders of the MILF and the region. Topics in the rumor mills, like the alleged high levels of corruption, were hung like hatchets over the heads of the BARMM’s top leadership, resulting in the decision of Ebrahim to step down.
The third highest-ranking person in the MILF hierarchy of leaders was installed to replace Ebrahim, in the person of Abdulraof Macacua, aka Sammy Gambar. Gambar used to be the chief of the Bangsamoro Islamic Armed Forces, the MILF’s military wing. Before his appointment as the new interim chief minister, Macacua served as interim governor of the newly created province of Maguindanao del Norte, carved out from the original Maguindanao province.
But no sooner had Macacua taken his seat as interim chief minister, all heads of ministries, offices, and agencies in the BARMM were ordered to tender their “courtesy resignations.” It was the first of a series of plot twists in the BARMM political drama under the new interim chief minister. The memorandum order was harshly worded, with a proviso that those who did not tender their resignations by June 30 would be deemed resigned. No questions asked.
Eventually, only a few members of the parliament were replaced, and notably, several of them were women. Two women ministers were replaced—engineer Aida Silongan of the Ministry of Science and Technology and lawyer Elijah Dumama-Alba of the Ministry of the Interior and Local Government (MILG).
Surprisingly, it was the new interim chief minister, Macacua, who appointed himself as the replacement for Alba’s successor as MILG minister, serving in a concurrent capacity. This move also jolted us out of our seats. This left us with a lingering question: Is the job of interim chief minister not heavy already? Does the Bangsamoro lack capable persons—man or woman—who can ably lead the MILG?
On Aug. 19, 2025, five days after the start of the election period in the region, the BTA (interim parliament) passed Bangsamoro Autonomy Act No. 77, or the new redistricting law for the region. This law was meant to replace the earlier redistricting BAA No. 58, which identified seven district seats in Sulu province. However, Sulu has since exited from the BARMM, based on another Supreme Court decision.
I remember speaking at a peace forum, describing a scenario of something unpredictable happening between August and October—a possible black swan phenomenon that would create a huge change in the chain of events in the BARMM political drama. I hinted at the possibility that the first parliamentary elections would not happen as scheduled. But nobody seemed to listen. Many thought that the elections on Oct. 13, 2025, would happen, come hell or high water.
On Sept. 29, 2025, the Supreme Court declared BAA 77 unconstitutional for two main reasons. First, according to the decision, which was immediate and executory, BAA 77 violated Section 5 of the Voters’ Registration Act, which prohibits any alteration of precincts once the election period has started. The BARMM election period started last Aug. 14, 2025. Secondly, BAA 77 violated the Bangsamoro Organic Law, which requires that “each district should comprise adjacent and adjoining areas as far as practicable.”
The Supreme Court decision noted that under BAA 77, some local government units in Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao del Norte, and Cotabato City were assigned to different districts that were neither contiguous nor adjacent.
(More next week.)
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