Red, green, and pink election results
Just when the progressive opposition was bracing for a monumental disappointment, it instead received a tremendous surprise when the Philippine electorate delivered the results of the May 12 elections.
A few days before Election Day, surveys were mostly consistent in predicting that senatorial candidates Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan were either outside or dangerously at the tail end of the Magic 12. As polling precincts closed, people were astonished when quick counts started coming in, maintained consistency until the days after, and showed Bam and Kiko in number two and five slots, respectively. The results now show that both Bam and Kiko will join the new batch of 12 senators on July 1.
Of the 12 Senate seats up for grabs, the poll results reveal that five were won by candidates identified with the Marcos administration: Erwin Tulfo, Ping Lacson, Tito Sotto, Pia Cayetano, and Lito Lapid. Five other candidates identified with the Duterte camp also won: Bong Go, Bato dela Rosa, Rodante Marcoleta, Camille Villar, and Imee Marcos. While Villar and Marcos were initially part of the Marcos slate, they jumped over to the Duterte camp at the tail end of the campaign. These two are expected to align themselves with the Dutertes in the run-up to the next elections in 2028. It’s a 5-5 win for the Marcos and Duterte camps and two wins for the progressive opposition.
While the progressive opposition won a mere two seats, the fact that their two mainstream candidates managed to win—and land in the Top 5 at that—strongly refutes the notion that the country has been turned into Marcos versus Duterte fiefdoms. It turns out that the country is not dyed in a mere two-color palette of red (Marcos) and green (Duterte). The results show that there remain large swaths of active and potent pink/yellow forces. Instead of a marginalized and sterile force, the progressive opposition is now the fulcrum that can tilt the balance between the seesawing forces of the Marcoses and the Dutertes.
During the campaign period, there were strong doubts about whether the pink/yellow forces that delivered a solid 15 million votes for Leni Robredo in the 2022 presidential election were still intact and capable of delivering votes for Bam and Kiko. These forces were less vocal and seemed unorganized in the 2025 campaign compared to how boisterous, proactive, and zealous they were in 2022. Suspicions that the 2022 opposition forces had become moribund were further fueled by the poor showing of Bam and Kiko in election surveys. Despite doubts, hope lingered, even if these forces were merely showing a specter of their strength in 2022.
Apart from the hope that the fabled 2022 pink/yellow forces would deliver the votes, the only other anchor of support for Bam and Kiko was their consistent Top 2 showing in multiple college surveys. These surveys were given less importance compared to those churned out by institutional survey outfits. Little did we know that these school surveys were apparently showing the tip of the iceberg—the voice of our young people, the Generation Z (born between 1997 and 2012), who number 21.87 million, and make up 28.79 percent of our voting-age population. The survey outfits may have correctly captured the choices of Gen Z at a particular period of the campaign, but they failed to reflect their readiness to change and update their choices when they got hold of new information.
The wins secured by Bam and Kiko negate or adulterate any claim by the Dutertes that the triumph of their candidates represents a vote of rejection against the surrender of former president Rodrigo Duterte to the International Criminal Court (ICC). If there’s any clear rejection shown by the election results, it is the rejection of the notion that the Senate is a trash bin for has-been entertainers, as seen in the failure of Phillip Salvador, Willie Revillame, Bong Revilla, among others, to win.
Aside from the progressive opposition, the Duterte camp is a big winner in the elections because it increased the number of senators who can block the impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte, regardless of how strong the evidence against her. While the Marcos camp also won five seats, its senator-allies are fair-weather friends, judging by their shifting loyalties whenever there’s a change of occupant at Malacañang Palace. If VP Sara consistently shows that she will be the strongest contender in the 2028 presidential elections, these Marcos fair-weather friends can readily jump ship, and they will start blocking efforts to exact accountability against VP Sara and other Duterte stalwarts, either in the impeachment court or in the ICC. The survival of the Marcoses after they leave office in 2028 will be in peril if that happens. We can already foresee that the Marcos camp will maximize its use (and misuse) of government resources and powers, and harness an alliance with the pink/yellow forces to prevent the Dutertes from winning the presidency in 2028.
The results of the 2025 elections set the stage for a battle royale, a battle for survival—between the Marcoses and the Dutertes in the next three years.
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