The opposing political forces in 2026
How will President Marcos deal with the push and pull of angry political forces as we enter a new year? First, there is an enraged citizenry demanding the prompt prosecution of public officials involved in massive corruption. Second, there is the throng of disgruntled lawmakers who will threaten the President’s grip on power if they are stripped of their shady privileges. Third, there are the wrathful pro-Duterte supporters who are constantly looking for ways to oust the President.
The first group is the enraged citizenry—consisting of the Catholic Church, civil society organizations, student groups, left-leaning alliances, and business associations—who are showing impatience with what they perceive to be a dragging investigation and prosecution of those involved in outrageous corruption in flood control and other public works projects. They are furiously demanding a permanent stop to lawmakers’ pork barrel allocations in infrastructure projects and an end to the necessity of legislators’ endorsements for the people’s access to free health care. They are also demanding full transparency and public access to budget deliberations and public bidding processes in public works projects.
This first group of enraged citizenry has two subgroups, though, with one subgroup not hesitating to call for accountability all the way to the President, while the other subgroup wants to temporarily suspend judgment on the President because doing otherwise will unwittingly help Vice President Sara Duterte become president in 2028, which to them will be even more disastrous for our country.
The second group, consisting of disgruntled lawmakers, is threatening to oust House Speaker Faustino Dy III and Majority Leader Sandro Marcos if their pork barrel allocations in next year’s budget are not granted, according to Sen. Panfilo Lacson. This is notwithstanding the fact that the President’s draft national budget for 2026 still incorporates pork barrel funds for public works projects and still maintains the need for public officials’ endorsements for access to free health care, albeit apparently at decreased levels. This group of disgruntled lawmakers will foreseeably threaten to withhold support for any attempt by the ruling government to impeach VP Sara in 2026, unless their pork barrel allocations and other questionable privileges are maintained.
With regard to the third group consisting of pro-Duterte forces, they’re equally voicing angry protests against the corruption scandal in public works projects. Their difference with the first group is that they selectively protest against officials identified with the Marcos administration, but they’re eerily silent on officials identified with the Duterte camp, even if they equally have their hands dirtied by corruption.
Mr. Marcos will have to navigate his way in the midst of these three opposing political forces as he enters 2026, which is the most crucial year of his presidency. Depending on how he handles and responds to the pressures of the three forces, he will either become a lame duck president or be viewed as a valuable ally in 2027, when our country will already be so absorbed in the choice of his successor.
The first group is pushing the President to practice politics based on moral or principled considerations. The lawmakers are pressuring the President to engage in realpolitik, or the practice of politics based on practical considerations. The pro-Duterte forces are forcing the President to engage in a tit for tat of fair and foul means to neutralize each other.
The Marcos administration and the pro-Duterte forces are competing for the allegiance of military and police forces, and they’re engaged in a war of attrition in controlling the narrative in cyberspace. The Marcos and Duterte camps will also be fighting for the support of lawmakers who want to preserve the status quo of political dynasties and the perpetuation of lawmakers’ dubious privileges. But not to be discounted is the fact that Mr. Marcos will continue to wield the formidable powers of the presidency, and the vast resources of government will remain at his disposal to support or counter the pressures of any of the opposing forces.
The problem with the first group is that their interest, attention, and fury will wane in the course of time because of disillusionment, apathy, or shifting attention. The first group is also susceptible to splintering into squabbling factions, causing their influence to dwindle. In contrast, disgruntled lawmakers and pro-Duterte forces will doggedly pursue their agenda unceasingly. There’s also the stark danger that disgruntled lawmakers and pro-Duterte forces will form an unholy alliance in support of their amoral objectives.
This is the political landscape that our country faces in the new year. In the end, barring insurmountable pressure from any of the opposing forces, the most compelling considerations that will influence the President’s decisions, and which will inevitably shape our country’s direction until 2028, will be the survival of his presidency and the protection of his family when he surrenders sovereign powers.
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