The Philippines at strategic crossroads

The United States–Philippines alliance serves as Manila’s primary security approach because it started with the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty and received additional support through the Visiting Forces Agreement (1998) and the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (2014). The alliance will undergo a complete transformation by 2025 through increased military cooperation and better diplomatic ties, and extensive joint military training programs.

The February 2025 visit of Admiral Samuel J. Paparo to Manila served as a tribute to the 80th anniversary of the city’s liberation while demonstrating the vital role of this bilateral relationship. The ceremonial statements hide a fundamental question about whether the Philippines maintains strategic independence or develops strategic dependence. The alliance provides essential security advantages during times of increasing regional tensions, yet the Philippines must develop its own engagement strategy by learning from Indonesia’s non-aligned stance to defend its national sovereignty.

The Indo-Pacific region faces an escalating security situation because of rising competition between the United States and China, which centers on the South China Sea. The Philippines needs to strengthen its deterrence capabilities because China continues to enter its exclusive economic zone and build up its military presence in disputed areas. The US alliance provides concrete military capabilities through Balikatan 2025, which will deploy 14,000 troops, including 9,000 Americans and 5,000 Filipinos, for amphibious operations, island defense drills, and coastal strike missions at northern Luzon and Palawan strategic locations.

The NMESIS anti-ship missile launcher and Typhon midrange missile system represent major upgrades to coastal defense capabilities through their advanced system implementation. The new capabilities improve deterrence, but they also lead to closer operational ties with US forces, which creates doubts about the balance between improved capabilities and national strategic independence.

The alliance system faces this problem because of an internal structural imbalance which affects the entire system. The US maintains its position as the leading power which shapes the strategic agenda, so Philippine defense planning often follows US security concerns instead of Filipino national interests. The Philippines faces the danger of becoming a forward operating base for US operations within a China containment strategy because of its unbalanced military capabilities.

The advanced deterrence system defends Manila yet creates avoidable conflicts which contradict the national strategic goals of the Philippines. The historical background of the area makes this issue more critical because the colonial era and the disputed US military base history in Subic and Clark have created mixed feelings about foreign military presence.

The Philippines faces multiple obstacles which stop it from achieving strategic sovereignty through alliance membership. The security dilemma creates a major issue because US military base growth and joint patrol operations for China deterrence create unpredictable tensions, which might lead to dangerous maritime conflicts.

The case of Indonesia serves as an important reference point for comparison. The Bandung Conference of 1955 created Indonesia’s foreign policy structure, which unites free and active nonalignment with regional diplomatic relations while staying away from major power bloc alliances. The Indonesian government maintained its stance against foreign military bases on its soil during all periods of heightened international tensions. Indonesia has developed the capability to establish regional standards and settle disputes autonomously because of its Asean leadership position, which keeps the region free from control by any single power.

Multiple paths exist which result in improved strategic sovereignty. The Philippine government needs to renegotiate Edca terms to create shared objectives which would establish US access to Philippine facilities. The Philippines can regain its narrative control through the development of an independent Filipino vision for the alliance, which emphasizes dignity and regional solidarity and mutual respect.

The US–Philippines alliance has reached a critical point in 2025. The Philippines needs to establish a relationship that combines alliance and independence through building a partnership with the US based on mutual respect and shared strategic goals for maintaining stability and fairness in the region. The alliance will transform from a required security partnership into an equal partnership which can handle future Indo-Pacific uncertainties.

—————-

Simon Hutagalung is a retired Indonesian foreign ministry official and received his master’s degree in political science and comparative politics from the City University of New York. The opinions expressed in this article are his own.