The urgent need to reverse overfishing in the Philippines

“Fish prices surge ahead of New Year in Bohol,” (News, 12/31/25) reflects the increase in prices of fish at the national level. The reported inflation rate in August 2025 was 9.5 percent, as against 1.5 percent for all commodities. This was attributed to low fish supply amid high fish demand. The low fish supply is driven by sporadic bad weather and decades of overfishing, which have reduced fish stocks to less than 30 percent of the 1950 level.

The government, in partnership with several stakeholders, is implementing the 2023 to 2028 Philippine Development Plan. However, it does not include the primary and strategic approach of reversing the trend of overfishing through fishing effort reduction as has been done in other countries with some success.

Upwelling, El Niño, La Niña events and fishing intensity are the critical factors that influence the sustainability of marine capture fisheries. Upwelling occurs during the northeast monsoon between the fourth and first quarters, coinciding with the spawning periods of sardines, round scads, and tunas. The second and third quarters are characterized by high temperatures and higher catch. Upwelling, particularly during the El Niño event, brings nutrient-rich water from the ocean bottom to the photic zone, thus producing a massive bloom of phytoplankton, which is the foundation of the food web in the marine environment. The country’s major upwelling regions and rich fishing grounds are Mimaropa, Western Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), and Soccsksargen. These are located within the West Philippine Sea (eastern portion of the South China Sea), Sulu Sea, Sulu Ridge, and Celebes Sea, which form a vast, integrated marine ecosystem.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has come up with monthly data on the Oceanic Niño Index categorized as neutral, weak, moderate, and strong, in which the positive and negative values refer to El Niño and La Niña events, respectively. The annual average index values for 2020 to 2024 are compared with the annual volume of catch (PSA-BFAR data). The result is that while the catch declined continuously from 1.927 million metric tons in 2020 to 1.6 million MT in 2024, the index values fluctuated from neutral to weak La Niña from 2020 to 2022, then from weak to neutral El Niño in 2023 and 2024.

The expected increase in catch in the last two years of warm weather was subdued by the effect of intense overfishing. Moreover, the January to October 2025 average index value was negative 0.25 degrees Celsius, as against the January to September 2025 catch of about 6 percent lower than last year’s.

The multidimensional indicators of intense overfishing are as follows: 1) The total marine fish catch declined from the peak at 2.426 million MT in 2010 to 1.814 million MT in 2022 or a drop of 25 percent; 2) The share of the total catch of the abovementioned five regions to the national catch increased from 59 percent in 2010 to 69 percent in 2022 due to the increase in catch in BARMM and Soccsksargen; 3) Over the same period, there was a decline in the catch of tunas (skipjack, yellowfin, and frigate) by 4.5 percent; sardines by 24 percent; and round scad by 36 percent; and 4) The share of catch of the above species to the national catch declined from 50 percent to 46 percent, respectively.

Therefore, the strategic integrated marine fisheries management of the five regions, which is the key to rebuilding the fish stocks, reversing the trend of overfishing, and reducing fish scarcity, should be formulated and provided with logistical and financial support, among other things.