Trump: The great loser
United States President Donald J. Trump keeps trying to take others for fools. “[W]here the Trumpists see victory, the rest of the world does not. A sampling of headlines from the past few days: ‘Donald Trump is the war’s biggest loser’ (The Economist); ‘There are no winners: US and Iran enter into fragile truce’ (Financial Times); ‘Trump’s Iran war leaves the US looking weakened to adversaries’ (Bloomberg); ‘Why the US-Iran ceasefire is seen as a failure for Donald Trump’ (South China Morning Post).” see Susan B. Glasser, “The costs of Trump’s Iran-war folly,” (newyorker.com, 4/9/26)
The American people have gotten less and less fooled by Trump, thankfully. He is the most unpopular president in the history of US polling, the second-worst being he himself during his first term. Try all the pollsters, even Fox News. I personally recommend the Pew Research Center (pewresearch.org), a nonpartisan institute with long-term engagement in high-quality surveys on many subjects, in many countries.
The polling summarizer Nate Silver says: “Since the Iran War began, Trump’s approval rating in the Silver Bulletin has dropped from -13.4 to -16.3. It hit an all-time second-term low of -17.5 a few days ago. Ending the war might prevent further damage to Trump’s popularity, but it’s unlikely to erase the decline he’s already seen.” (natesilver.net, 4/09/26).
The Philippines’ long-term engagement should be with the world’s peoples in general, rather than with their leaders or regimes in particular. All of us probably have many Americans as good and trustworthy personal friends. For everyone’s information, the Pew data show that Filipino Americans lean much more pro-Democrat than pro-Republican. They are like the US immigrant population in general, whom Trumpists hate and are trying to disenfranchise—Pinoy green card holders, take note.
In the survey field, my colleagues and I have befriended pollsters from Russia, China and Taiwan, Israel and Palestine, Ireland and Northern Ireland, India and Pakistan, and South Korea, and found them all competent, sincere, and with much to teach us. (We look forward to meeting our counterparts in Ukraine, the newest member of the International Social Survey Program, issp.org.) But they may not be too free to poll about Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Benjamin Netanyahu, or Kim Jong Un—unlike Americans, who are still free to poll about Trump! I am ignorant of polling in Iran, except that it exists and is quite relevant nowadays. We Filipinos, especially our leaders, should learn and heed the discrepancies between what foreign leaders assert and what their own people feel.
Lessons of the US-Iran war: 1. Military alliances. Hopefully, the Trump regime will end by 2028, if not much earlier. Let us strengthen further our ties with Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. Let us learn from Ukraine, in particular, about drone warfare, especially sea-based, both surface and submarine.
2. Scientific development. We Filipinos can master any science if we put our minds to it. Let us develop the capability to use nuclear science for all purposes, both for peaceful domestic use and for defense against aggressors. Let us learn from the experience of Israel and North Korea about why smallness of size does not matter. Let us also learn from the histories of India and Pakistan.
3. Geography. Consider our special geographic endowments: how can we take advantage of, and prevent other countries from abusing, the narrow sea channels between northern Philippines and Taiwan, and between southern Philippines and Malaysia and Indonesia? How should we secure them?
4. Human capital. Consider our special human endowments: how can we take advantage of our huge global dominance among seafarers in particular, counting those under any flag, and not only that of the Philippines?
Meanwhile, Trump may be laughing all the way to the bank. There’s a lot of money to be made in the world’s financial and commodity markets by those with advance notice—his family and cronies, of course—of what, and exactly when, Trump’s next move will be.
It wouldn’t surprise me if, for instance, there’s already a secret deal for the multimillion-dollar toll-fee per ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz to be shared by the Iranian ruling class with Trump himself. And why not with all the big shots on both sides of the channel and the deal-helpers from other countries?
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mahar.mangahas@sws.org.ph
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