Unrealistic official poverty
I am worried that the way Philippine poverty is officially estimated gives the mistaken impression that the problem is being solved very rapidly, if not almost completely solved already.
The national proportion of families that are poor, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), is down to only 6.4 percent as of 2025, from 10.9 percent in 2023, which is a remarkable cut by almost half, after only two years. The PSA took income data from the Family Income and Expenditure Surveys (FIES) of 2023 and 2025, with which I do not quarrel. However, the poverty thresholds that it applied to the FIES data do not seem realistic.
Only six out of every 1,000 Metro Manila families are now officially poor? Let me start by citing the PSA poverty incidence and threshold for the National Capital Region (NCR) in particular, on the premise that Inquirer readers will be more familiar with the costs of living here.
In NCR, the official poverty incidence was practically halved, from 1.1 percent in 2023 to only 0.6 percent in 2025. This was based on PSA monthly thresholds per family of P15,713 and P16,842 respectively (see Table 1 of “Poverty incidence in all regions declined between 2023 and 2025,” psa.gov.ph, 8/26/26). Dividing those thresholds by 30 days gives only P523.77 per day in 2023 and P561.40 per day in 2025, for a family of five.
The standard of living implied by the official poverty line was previously seriously downgraded—the term used by its predecessor the National Statistical Coordination Board was “refined” —in February 2011. I discussed this in “The lowering of the official poverty line,” “Is poverty gone in NCR?” and “No meat allowed for the poor,” (inquirer.net, 2/12/11, 2/19/11, and 10/8/11). I’m not aware of more adjustments in the official daily minimum food menu—as created by the Food and Nutrition Research Institute—in the past 15 years since then.
For other needs of the poor, I’m not aware of any change in the PSA practice of setting a fixed ratio of P30 for nonfood items for every P70 for food items. I don’t think the PSA had made provisions for what poor people need to spend for out-of-pocket costs of earning, like commuting to work and school, mobile phone load, and internet—for which Social Weather Stations has been doing regular surveys, by the way.
Only six of the 18 Philippine regions have double-digit poverty now? According to the PSA, all of the 18 regions declined very much in poverty incidence in the short span from 2023 to 2025. Now, only six of the 18 regions still have double-digit percentages of poor families, as of 2025 (in parentheses), namely: Mimaropa or Mindoro-Masbate-Romblon-Palawan (11.3), Bicol (16.8) Negros Island Region (14.3), Eastern Visayas (12.8), Northern Mindanao (14.4), and the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (12.8).
There are now five regions that, according to the PSA, recently “graduated” from double-digit poverty in 2023 to single-digit poverty in 2025 (in parentheses), namely: Central Visayas (8.7), Western Mindanao (9.8), Southern Mindanao (5.5), Central Mindanao (9.6), and Caraga (7.8).
In Luzon, according to the PSA, the NCR and five other regions were already in single-digits of poverty as of 2023, namely (with 2025 poverty rates in parentheses): Cordillera (2.7), Ilocos (4.0), Cagayan (4.4), Central Luzon (1.9), and Southern Tagalog (2.7). In the Visayas, only Western Visayas was already in single-digits in 2023 (5.2 percent in 2025).
Could regional poverty rates be cut in half again? There are two regions apiece in Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao that still have double-digit PSA poverty as of 2025, with rates already well below 20 percent. Does the 2023-2025 experience mean that it is possible for the next FIES, set for reference year 2027, to show another halving of poverty in the poorest regions, and thus bring poverty in all regions down to single digits?
Is it realistic to expect that the national poverty incidence, as computed by the PSA, might drop from the 6 percent in 2025 to something close to 3 percent in 2027? The PSA’s next finding would presumably be ready for reporting two years from now, by August 2028, under the next administration already.
Everyone wants Philippine poverty eliminated. But it is reasonable to expect that Filipinos who are presently poor, and not just the government’s statisticians, should be able to testify that their problem is being solved.
—————-
mahar.mangahas@sws.org.ph.
******
Get real-time news updates: inqnews.net/inqviber
