What the surveys say on Duterte’s ICC arrest
Filipinos must be confused by the apparent mixed signals brought about by several political survey results released recently.
In a survey conducted by Pulse Asia Research from March 23 to 29, Vice President Sara Duterte garnered the highest rating among top public officials. She obtained an approval rating of 59 percent and a trust rating of 61 percent. In contrast, President Marcos’ approval rating and trust rating were both at 25 percent.
In a more recent survey conducted by OCTA Research from April 2 to 5, Marcos’ trust rating was still at 60 percent, although the same represented a 5-point decrease from his 65 percent rating in November 2024. Meanwhile, Marcos’ performance satisfaction rating was at 59 percent, although the same was also a 5-point decrease from his 64 percent rating for the same period. In contrast, Vice President Sara’s trust rating increased from 49 percent to 58 percent, while her performance satisfaction rating increased from 48 percent to 56 percent for the same period. In this OCTA survey, Marcos had a slim lead over Duterte on both trust and performance ratings.
Both the Pulse Asia and OCTA Research surveys also showed that two Duterte allies, namely incumbent senators Bong Go and Bato dela Rosa, were rated very high among the senatorial candidates. Go topped both surveys, while Dela Rosa was either second or third place. Another Duterte ally, actor Phillip Salvador, was considered a probable winning candidate in both surveys, with sharp increases in his ratings after the former president’s ICC arrest.
Since the two surveys were made after former president Rodrigo Duterte was arrested and whisked away to face trial in the ICC on March 11, 2025, do we interpret them as a rejection of the Marcos administration’s decision to surrender Duterte to the ICC? Duterte supporters are trumpeting the view that the Pulse Asia survey results, which showed a precipitous drop in Marcos’ trust and performance ratings, represent the people’s rejection of the decision to surrender Duterte to the ICC. Does this view have a basis? Should the Marcos administration reconsider cooperating with the ICC if and when additional arrest warrants are issued against Duterte’s co-perpetrators?
It should be pointed out that both the Pulse Asia and OCTA Research surveys were on the issue of the president’s and the vice president’s “trust” and “performance” ratings IN GENERAL. The surveys did not dwell specifically on, and did not categorically ask about, the respondents’ sentiments about Duterte’s arrest.
On the contrary, two surveys specifically asked the respondents’ sentiments on Duterte’s ICC arrest and his liability for the thousands of killings and other human rights violations committed in connection with his so-called drug war.
In a survey conducted by WR Numero Research Poll from March 31 to April 7, 2025, 62 percent of Filipinos expressed the belief that it’s important for Duterte to stand trial before the ICC. In the same survey, 52 percent agreed that Duterte should be held accountable for crimes against humanity. The poll also showed that 61 percent of Filipinos believe it is important to bring his co-perpetrators to trial at the ICC. The survey further revealed that 66 percent of Filipinos believe that Mr. Marcos should prioritize investigating and prosecuting police officers who abused their authority during Duterte’s drug war campaign. The survey results were consistent with the Social Weather Stations poll conducted from Feb. 15 to Feb. 19, 2025, which showed that 51 percent of Filipinos agree that Duterte must be made liable for drug-related killings during his presidency.
Fellow Inquirer columnist Mahar Mangahas wrote last March 15, 2025 (see “Public opinion supports the ICC,” Social Climate, 3/15/25) that in SWS national surveys in March 2023, December 2023, March 2024, and June 2024, the dominant opinion on the ICC investigation was always one of approval, with a “gross approval rating … between 49 and 59 percent.” Mangahas also revealed that even during the Duterte presidency, “(i)n six surveys in 2016-2018, only one in four Filipinos accepted the police’s claim of killing drug suspects only in self-defense, using the nanlaban excuse. The great majority believed that the police were involved in extrajudicial killings and that they planted evidence against the suspects they wanted to arrest.”
The survey results showed that the people’s assessment of Mr. Marcos’ performance of his overall duties was either low (under the Pulse Asia Survey) or decreasing (under the OCTA Research survey). The message for the President, therefore, is to work harder on making life better for his countrymen. But on the prosecution of Duterte and his co-perpetrators in the ICC, the message is loud and clear–Good job. Carry on.
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