Who might win in 2028?
There will be two presidential elections of interest in 2028: first in May here in the Philippines, and another in November in the United States. In the latter case, I don’t count out the possibility of the incumbent Donald J. Trump trying for a third term, by persuading the US Supreme Court to interpret the two-term limit as only applying consecutively. But there are many US polls showing that Trump has quickly become the least popular president in American history. His job performance rating turned negative long ago. As his personal numbers fade, he drags down the rest of the Republican party.
For serious politicians, opinion polls matter all throughout the election cycle. Now is not too early to poll concerning 2028. Those aiming for elective office need: (a) to be known to the electorate; (b) to have a favorable reputation; and (c) to be preferred over the competing candidates for the posts they desire. Merely being a celebrity and a nice person is not enough to be a serious contender.
For us Filipinos, the political party matters much less than the person running for office. As voters, we are quite parochial. Our most important connectors are with the candidates’ family histories and provincial origins. The names of the political parties keep on changing; most people don’t bother to remember them anymore.
The data for determining one’s election prospects don’t grow in the wild, ready for free picking. The best sources of high-quality data are scientific surveys. With respect to 2028 election outcomes, the survey respondents should be those old enough to vote at that time. That means born on or before May 8, 2010, which includes those still 15, 16, and 17 years old as of now.
The surveys should ask who the respondents think should run for president in 2028, who they expect to run for president, whom they would probably vote for, and who would be their second choice in case their first choice does not run. The surveys should quantify the SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) of the probable candidates.
How I made a bet in December 1990 on who would win the presidential election of May 1992, and won. This is a true story, about a poker-mate’s challenge, sometime before Christmas of 1990, to give any three names that would include the winner of the 1992 election. That was 16 months before the election, when there were no official candidates for president yet. I’ll call this poker-mate Lew, after the unique poker deal that he later introduced, and baptized as “Lewinsky.” (It’s a table-deal that recalls the games played by former US President Bill Clinton with White House intern Monica Lewinsky.)
Lew offered to bet a half-gallon bottle of scotch—he specified Johnny Walker Red, with the handle for one-handed carrying—against all comers, that none of any three candidates named by the bettor would win the election. The bettor would win if any of his three choices won. Payment of the whisky was set for Christmas 1992.
Note that, if none of the bettor’s choices became a candidate, then the bettor already lost. Obviously, Lew figured that, against many takers, he would come out well ahead.
I could not resist Lew’s challenge, and immediately wrote down Fidel V. Ramos (FVR) and Miriam Defensor Santiago (MDS), based on their current survey ratings as Cabinet members. I knew the third highest rated politician was Joseph “Erap” Estrada, one of the two non-Cory survivors in the 1987 senatorial race; but, judging 1992 as too soon for him to run for president, I made Jovito Salonga my third choice. (Eventually, Erap chose to run for vice president, as the running mate of Eduardo “Danding” Cojuangco.)
Social Weather Stations did five surveys on the 1992 presidential race; the first, in July 1991, ranked the candidates thus: 1 Ramos, 2 Salonga, 3-4 Estrada and Santiago, 5 Salvador Laurel, 6-7 Ramon Mitra and Aquilino Pimentel Jr., and 8 Cojuangco. Survey two, in November 1991, found: 1 Ramos, 2-3 Estrada and Santiago, 4 Salonga, 5 Mitra, 6 Laurel, and 7-8 Marcelo Fernan and Cojuangco. Survey three, in February 1992, got: 1 Ramos, 2 Santiago, 3-4 Mitra and Estrada, 5 Cojuangco, 6 Imelda Marcos, 7 Salonga, and 8 Laurel. Survey four, in early April 1992, got: 1-2 Santiago and Ramos, 3 Cojuangco, 4-6 Mitra, Salonga and Marcos, and 7 Laurel. Survey five, of April 28-May 4, 1992 got: 1-2 Ramos and Santiago, 3-4 Cojuangco and Mitra, 5-6 Salonga and Marcos, and 7 Laurel. (The numbers are in my book, “The Philippine Social Climate,” Anvil Publishing, 1994.)
The 1992 election was on Monday, May 11. The headlines that week all reported FVR and MDS as tied. I was immediately sure of winning the big scotch bottle, even though it took weeks for the Commission on Elections count to finish. Lew didn’t mind losing to me in particular. I never got to ask him how much he netted; but he was quite contented, and must be telling the story at his present quorum in the sky.
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Contact: mahar.mangahas@sws.org.ph.
