Primed for premium residential developments
The more expensive condominium projects in Metro Manila are exhibiting resilience especially now that the residential market is starting to turn a corner.
We can’t deny the fact that challenges remain, but latest Colliers Philippines data show positive take up in the Metro Manila vertical market. Among the condominium price segments, it’s the upscale to ultra luxury units that continue to perform well. This is a major reason why national developers continue to prime their premium residential projects for the affluent buyers.
Green shoots of recovery
As I discussed in my previous Colliers Review piece, the Metro Manila condominium market is starting to see green shoots of recovery.
As of Q2 2025, almost all price segments in Metro Manila recorded positive net take-up, with aggregate condominium take-up outpacing back outs. This is a positive sign for the vertical market as it indicates that the ready-for-occupancy (RFO) promos are starting to bear fruit.
We’re finally over the hump that we saw in 2021, when we recorded sizable back outs in the Metro Manila market as offshore gaming companies started to leave the capital region and local buyers–including Filipinos working abroad–felt the pinch of elevated mortgage rates and balloon financing upon turnover of pre-selling condominium units.
Understanding condo supply and demand
Allow me to wear the hat of a real estate economist this time and look at supply and demand angles of the Metro Manila condominium situation.
On the demand side, almost all price segments recorded net take up in Q2 2025. Even the lower and upper mid-income segments–severely affected by elevated interest and mortgage rates and which recorded sizable back out at the height of the pandemic–posted net take up in Q2 2025, from net back outs a quarter ago.
Interestingly, upscale to ultra luxury price segments also recorded better take-up rates quarter-on-quarter.
In Q2 2025, Colliers recorded the upscale, luxury and ultra luxury segments (starting at P12 million per unit) accounting for 12 percent of total condominium take-up in Metro Manila. Among the projects that drove take-up during the period include those in Ortigas Center, Fort Bonifacio, Rockwell Center, and Ortigas fringe.
The upscale to ultra luxury segments continue to be a cut above the rest. Upper to ultra luxury units, priced at least P50 million per units have formidable take-up rates.
Those in the Makati central business district (CBD), for instance, enjoy take-up rates of between 50 percent and 100 percent. These are projects launched between 2017 and 2025. Upper to ultra luxury projects in Fort Bonifacio, Rockwell Center, and fringes of Ortigas have take-ups of between 60 percent and 100 percent–among the best-performing projects in the capital region as of Q2 2025.
It is the strong showing of these more expensive condominium projects that are enticing developers to shift to upscale to ultra luxury developments and tap the ‘awash with cash’ market.
In 2024, these segments accounted for more than 40 percent of new units launched in Metro Manila, from only 20 percent a year ago. This only means that developers are becoming more prudent with their new launches–less units per project that are focused on the affluent and astute buyers.
Luxury’s shift to suburbia
What I previously discussed as a shift to suburbia has also evolved into a more pronounced shift to luxury.
More expensive condominium units are being launched in key cities and localities outside Metro Manila and we see major residential developers cornering this demand by launching more upscale to luxury developments in Pampanga, Cavite, Batangas, as well as Cebu, which boasts of the largest luxury residential stock outside of Metro Manila.
Another encouraging insight is the fact that even lot-only developments are proliferating in Metro Manila, with a couple of projects in South and Central Luzon posting double digit price increase on a year-on-year basis.
Lot-only projects within and outside Metro Manila continue to achieve strong demand from investors looking for bigger and more open spaces.
With lot-only prices outside of Metro Manila surging, just imagine the capital appreciation potential of similar developments in the capital region, where there is a dearth of developable land ideal for horizontal projects.
There’s no doubt that the residential market is seeing light at the end of the proverbial tunnel, and what’s emerging is a greater preference for affluence.
For feedback, please email joey.bondoc@colliers.com
