PIDS projects PH GDP to grow at 5% in 2025  

The Philippine economy is expected to rebound in the final months of 2025 after a third-quarter slowdown. The Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) is projecting a more optimistic 5-percent full-year growth in gross domestic product (GDP).

That is, if fourth-quarter growth revs up to 5 percent from the four-year low of 4 percent recorded in the third quarter.

The state think tank’s projection is more modest than recent forecasts by the Marcos administration’s economic team and market analysts as well.

“Despite internal and external headwinds, the Philippine economy is still projected to grow moderately through 2025 to 2026,” PIDS said in a note.

Earlier, when Ralph Recto was still Finance Secretary, he noted that the Philippine economy might expand by only 4.7 to 4.8 percent in 2025. Other market estimates were also below the 5-percent mark.

The projection also falls short of the government’s target band of 5.5 to 6.5 percent. Arsenio Balisacan, Secretary of the Department of Economic Planning and Development, has already acknowledged that this range is likely to be missed amid ongoing uncertainties.

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PIDS also expects the Philippine economy to grow 5.3 percent in 2026, also below the government’s goal of 6 percent to 7 percent.

“While consumption and remittance flows provide support, structural bottlenecks, especially in governance, disaster preparedness, infrastructure and human capital are central to unlocking higher growth,” PIDS said.