Asean+3 region seen growing by 4.1% in ’25
The combined economies of the Asean+3 region are expected to grow by a faster 4.1 percent in 2025, the Asean+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) said on Thursday.
This was an upward adjustment from the forecast of 3.8 percent that AMRO stated last July.
The region includes the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and their three geographically closest partners—South Korea, China and Japan.
Asean groups the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore, as well as Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam and Myanmar.
AMRO said it revised the forecast given a strong first-semester outturn and stronger-than-expected export performance.
Meanwhile, the forecast for the Philippines was unchanged at 5.6 percent. This is slower than the 5.7 percent growth recorded in 2024.
For the entire region, AMRO warned of “near-term uncertainty [due to] unpredictable US policy shifts, with additional risks from more volatile financial markets and spikes in commodity prices.”
Still, the think tank said there continued to be risks that actual region-wide economic growth would turn out lower than the forecast.
Such downside risks include more aggressive protectionist policies and slower growth in major economies. Also included are more volatile global financial markets and a spike in global commodity prices.
Also on Thursday, the Singapore-based AMRO released its Asean+3 Financial Stability Report 2025.
The report says Asean+3 governments should support economic sectors that are vulnerable to changes in American trade policy as well as geopolitical tensions. This, to bolster the region’s resilience to heightened uncertainties.
“While intra-regional trade and domestic demand have become increasingly important growth drivers across Asean+3, the region remains deeply connected to the global financial system and is therefore not insulated from global shocks,” said Dong He, chief economist of AMRO.
“Overall, the region’s financial system remains resilient, although pockets of vulnerabilities persist,” He said in a press briefing held in Singapore. The Philippine Daily Inquirer attended online.
The report finds that export-oriented businesses might face pressures on profit margins amid shifting trade dynamics. Particularly vulnerable are smaller firms with high exposure to the US market.
Also, inflation pressures in the US could persist amid higher import tariffs. This complicates the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance and “potentially triggering spillovers to other parts of the world.”
Still, AMRO said the so-called Asean+3 economies remain well-positioned to navigate global headwinds.
