Luxury economics seen to lift Emperador
Liquor powerhouse Emperador Inc. is seen to benefit from a rebound in the whisky business as “premiumization” and a more favorable global macro environment lifts demand.
The outlook was detailed in a Dec. 23 research issued by First Metro Securities and Singapore’s DBS Bank, and written by analysts Estella Dhel Villamiel and Mark Angeles.
The analysts expect Emperador’s whisky revenues to grow at a compounded annual growth rate of 7 percent from 2026 to 2027, with China seen as a major driver of the recovery.
Improved volumes are also projected to lift earnings, with operating margins seen expanding by about 220 basis points over the same period.
The research likewise cites the emergence of a growing middle class that is increasingly adopting whisky consumption, supporting demand in traditional markets, such as the United Kingdom.
The research notes that the whisky segment faced demand headwinds and tariff-related pressures this year, weighing on volumes and margins.
But with 2025 as a new base year, First Metro and DBS expect growth to resume from 2026 onward.
Emperador’s whisky portfolio is housed under Scotland-based Whyte & Mackay Group, whose brands, led by Dalmore, are positioned in the premium and ultra-premium liquor segments.
Analysts note that these brands benefit from “luxury economics,” where scarcity, aging and controlled releases allow for stronger pricing and higher margins compared with mass-market spirits.
The research estimates the brokerage value of the whisky inventory at 1.4 billion British pounds (P111 billion), reflecting the market value of aging casks rather than their accounting cost.
As whisky matures, its value typically appreciates, making inventory a key long-term asset for producers.
Brandy ‘renaissance’
The anticipated rebound in whisky comes as Emperador’s brandy business shows renewed momentum.
The research expects Emperador’s brandy revenues to grow by 20 percent in 2026, supported by new products and portfolio innovation. These are seen to help offset near-term volatility in the global spirits market.
On a consolidated basis, Emperador is projected to post flat revenue growth in 2025 before returning to double-digit expansion in 2026.
Net income is forecast to climb steadily through 2027 as operating leverage improves across both brandy and whisky segments.
The analysts caution, however, that risks remain, including prolonged weakness in global spirits demand, heightened competition, regulatory headwinds, such as tariffs and foreign exchange volatility.
Still, they say Emperador’s premium whisky exposure positions the company to benefit from a cyclical recovery in global consumption.
From January to September year, Emperador booked a net income of P4.67 billion, down 2.3 percent, amid the global slowdown.
