PH slashes 2025-2028 export goals amid challenging global trade
The Philippines has lowered its export targets for 2025 to 2028, as the sector continued to fall short of lofty goals amid US tariff uncertainties and global route disruptions.
Under the revised outlook, exports this year are projected to reach between $110.8 billion and $113.4 billion. This range suggests a 30.68-percent to 32.27-percent drop from the Philippine Export Development Plan 2023-2028 (PEDP) target of $163.6 billion.
For 2026, the recalibrated target stands between $116.1 billion and $120.2 billion, down 35.62 percent to 37.81 percent from the previous goal.
Targets for 2027 have also been revised to $123.3 billion to $127.4 billion. These suggest a 39.93-percent to 41.87-percent decrease from the previous goal of $212.1 billion.
For the final year of the PEDP, export targets were downgraded to $132.8 billion to $135.1 billion—43.83 percent to 44.78 percent lower than the previous target.
The upper limits of the updated projections follow the more conservative goals under the PDP.
Bianca Sykimte, director of the Department of Trade and Industry Export Marketing Bureau, said the government opted for a range rather than fixed numbers to allow greater flexibility amid volatile global conditions.
Sykimte pointed to geopolitical tensions, uncertainty over the United States tariffs and disruptions in global routes—such as the 2023 and 2024 Panama Canal drought—as key reasons for the downgrade.
“Even in the first two years, we really missed the export targets, so we really had to recalibrate. Our growth has been decelerating in the last two years, so we had to adjust (translated),” she told reporters on Thursday on the sidelines of the National Export Congress.
Cited as another challenge is the shrinking pool of exporters, now roughly half the number recorded a decade ago.
‘More realistic’
Philippine Exporters Confederation Inc. (Philexport) president Sergio Ortiz-Luis Jr. welcomed the downgrade to “more realistic” targets, saying these were more achievable under current trade conditions.
“It’s a more realistic target considering the challenges we’re facing,” Luis told reporters. “Actually, even that target, we were doubtful until Trump mellowed down on his tariff.”
US President Donald Trump recently agreed to exempt more than 200 agricultural products, including coconuts, a top Philippine export.
Still, Luis emphasized that robust export growth would require stronger investment support.
“We have always been praying for the government to look at export as an investment, not as an expense, because there’s almost no investment,” he said. “If they would like to look at exports, then take it seriously.”
Sykimte earlier said the Philippines remained on track to meet its $113.42-billion export target for 2025.
Looking ahead, the official said the planned ‘COMPETE Plus for SMEs’ project with the World Bank could provide “sizable support” to the industry beginning in 2027. This project committed $350 million in concessional loans, grants and technical assistance.
