PSEi seen bottoming near 5,800 as volatility persists
The Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) may be nearing a short-term bottom around the 5,800 level, although market volatility is expected to persist, according to Unicapital Securities Inc.
In a recent webinar, the brokerage said current technical indicators suggest the market is still in a fragile state, with a bearish bias prevailing as long as the index remains below the 6,100 level, which corresponds to its 20-day exponential moving average.
Despite this, Unicapital flagged the 5,800 zone as a potential support area where the market could stabilize in the near term.
Key support levels are seen at 5,920.87 and 5,816.82, while resistance is pegged at 6,212.95 and 6,284.98, underscoring the tight trading range as investors search for direction.
The firm said a sustained recovery would depend on whether the PSEi can reclaim higher levels, particularly above 6,400.
“If we reclaim and stay above 6,400, the bullish case could bring the index toward 6,800 to 7,200,” said Christopher San Pedro, technical analyst at Unicapital Securities.
Otherwise, San Pedro said the market risks slipping further, with a bearish scenario placing the index between 4,900 and 5,600 if it fails to hold above 6,000.
Given these conditions, Unicapital urged investors to adopt a defensive stance and wait for clearer signs of stabilization before taking larger positions.
For traders, however, selective opportunities may emerge through short-term bounce plays, particularly using a relative rotation system that identifies leaders and laggards based on current trends.
Unicapital said stocks classified as “alpha” or leaders—such as DigiPlus Interactive Corp., Manila Electric Co., International Container Terminal Services Inc., PLDT Inc. and Puregold Price Club Inc.—may be considered for buy-on-dips strategies.
Meanwhile, “beta” stocks like AREIT Inc., Globe Telecom Inc., JG Summit Holdings Inc., Ayala Corp. and Jollibee Foods Corp. could be accumulated if the index stabilizes above 6,200.
Laggards or “charlie” stocks, including Universal Robina Corp., Semirara Mining and Power Corp., Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co., Bank of the Philippine Islands and BDO Unibank Inc., warrant a wait-and-see approach.
Taken together, Unicapital said these signals point to a market still searching for a bottom, with the 5,800 level emerging as a critical zone for near-term stabilization.
