Warning: 2026 outlook—Here’s what every business needs to know
Trends, trends, trends. I have said it many times before and it bears repeating: You need to obsess about trends. The more you anticipate correctly what’s coming, the more you will be able to prepare yourself and your business to surf these waves instead of being buried by them, gasping for air.
The number one cause for the downfall of the biggest failures in corporate history in the last 50 years was—you guessed it—lack of trends analysis. So here we go.
The obvious one: AI
It’s the headline of our era: Artificial intelligence (AI) is the single most talked-about topic on the planet right now, and for good reason. But as a business leader, you need to grasp that the implications of AI go far deeper than most people realize. This isn’t just another tech trend; it’s a watershed moment. Generations will look back and say, “That was the point when AI changed everything.”
I’ve spent the last 15 years collaborating with and mentoring some of the top Silicon Valley executives. If there’s one thing they all agree on, it’s that the AI revolution is going to be more transformative on a global scale than even the advent of the internet. This is the kind of change that will define the next era of business.
And yet, even with everyone talking about AI, it’s still vastly underrated and underhyped. Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt recently said that people still underestimate how fast and how fundamentally AI is going to reshape everything. It’s human nature to resist change, especially when that change is as sweeping and transformative as AI. Many leaders focus on AI’s current flaws or just dabble with surface-level tools like chatbots. They’re missing the bigger picture.
So here’s the wake-up call: if you’re not obsessively staying ahead of the AI curve, if you’re not putting it to use on a fundamental level in your organization, you’re going to get left behind. It’s that simple. In a few years, the competitors who embraced AI fully—who treated it as the engine of their innovation—will be miles ahead. You need to either become that leader who understands AI’s possibilities or surround yourself with people who do. Otherwise, you’re simply watching the revolution from the sidelines—and that’s not where you want to be.
The less obvious: We are early in the AI shift
If you think about the computer revolution, it’s been reshaping the way businesses and humans operate for roughly 80 years now. That’s eight decades of evolution from room-sized machines to the smartphone in your pocket. In contrast, the modern AI revolution, the one that truly caught the world’s attention, really only kicked off a few years ago when tools like ChatGPT became mainstream. That means we’re incredibly early in the game—barely at the starting line of what’s going to be a much faster and more accessible transformation than the computer age ever was.
Why? Because unlike the early days of computing, where machines were expensive, bulky and inaccessible to the average person, AI is built on infrastructure that’s already everywhere. People have smartphones, laptops and the internet at their fingertips. Yes, we’ll need more power, more data centers and better infrastructure, but the barrier to entry is dramatically lower than it was with early computers.
This means the AI shift is going to move at lightning speed. We’re at the dawn of something that will reshape how businesses and humans interact over the next five to 10 years in ways we can barely imagine. And if you think about what 15 or 20 years might look like, we’re talking about a world fundamentally transformed in every corner of life and business.
In short, we’re still in the earliest chapters of the AI story, but because the tools are already in everyone’s hands, the pace of change will be unlike anything we’ve seen before. That’s the less obvious truth: we’re at the beginning of a tidal wave and every business leader needs to prepare for just how quickly that wave is going to hit.
Even less obvious: Robotics
Now, let’s talk about something that isn’t grabbing headlines quite as loudly yet, but it will: the robotics revolution. While it may not completely reshape daily business operations tomorrow, it’s absolutely coming in the medium term. And it’s going to be huge. Visionaries like Elon Musk are already betting on deploying millions of humanoid robots to meet their bold targets, and they’re not alone.
Here’s the big picture: as AI accelerates, it’s only natural to pair it with robots that can be updated and enhanced over time. Imagine a world where a humanoid robot in your business or even in your home becomes smarter and more capable with each update. Today’s $20,000 robot is just a hint of what’s coming. In a few years, that same investment could get you a tireless worker with the brainpower of an Einstein who holds a PhD in virtually everything.
It sounds like science fiction, but it’s not. It’s just that most business leaders are hesitant to think about it because it feels far off. But let me be clear: it’s going to happen sooner than most people think. The faster you start considering how robotics will reshape industries and how you can ride that wave—rather than be caught gasping for air beneath it—the better positioned you’ll be. You want to surf the wave, not be swallowed by it.
The more you know and the more you prepare, the more you can turn these trends into opportunities—as a business leader, as a business owner or as an investor.
The one thing you have 100% control over
Here’s the bottom line: no matter what’s happening in the world—be it economic uncertainty, political shifts or industry disruptions—there’s one thing you can always steer: your own performance and the performance of your team. That’s your iron grip in a world full of variables you can’t control.
And the secret to driving performance is understanding that humans need a propulsion system: they need something to run away from and something to run toward. If you want to maximize both your own drive and your team’s energy, you’ve got to set those incentives right.
On one side, you have the “move away from” motivator. It’s the idea that when people are pushed against the wall—when they feel the sting of what failure could mean—they get creative, they get resourceful and they find a way to power through. So you want to be crystal clear about what failure looks like, not to dwell on it, but to create that drive to avoid it.
On the other side, you have your “move towards” motivator: a bright, inspiring goal that you and your team are running toward. This is where you paint a vivid picture of success. Whatever your ultimate vision is—be it a billion-dollar business, a thriving legacy or a future-proofed empire—make it so compelling that you can practically taste it.
When both of these forces—the push away from failure and the pull toward a shining goal—are set up right, you and your team will perform at your best. And that’s something you can control, no matter what the world throws your way!
Tom Oliver, a “global management guru” (Bloomberg), is the chair of The Tom Oliver Group, the trusted advisor and counselor to many of the world’s most influential family businesses, medium-sized enterprises, market leaders and global conglomerates. For more information and inquiries: TomOliverGroup.com or email Tom.Oliver@inquirer.com.ph.
