Asia faces ‘Super El Niño’ still reeling from Mideast conflict
Bangkok, THAILAND—Already reeling from the effects of conflict in the Middle East, Asia is now facing the prospect of strong El Niño conditions that could spike energy demand, sap hydropower, and damage crops.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that brings worldwide changes in winds, air pressure, and rainfall patterns.
Last week, the United Nations’ weather and climate agency said El Niño conditions could develop as soon as May to July.
The World Meteorological Organization, meanwhile, said early signs indicated the event could be particularly strong, with some dubbing the impending event a “super El Niño,” although the term is not used by scientists.
That is not good news for Asia, parts of which are traditionally heavily affected by the heat waves, drought and heavy rains that El Niño can bring.
The phenomenon essentially shifts traditional weather patterns around, for example moving rain that normally falls over Indonesia out to sea, leaving the country vulnerable to drought and wildfires.
Catastrophic impacts
El Niño occurs around every two to seven years and is forecast based on sea temperatures.
“The subsurface anomaly that we’re seeing so far is pretty strong,” said Peter van Rensch, a climate scientist at Australia’s Monash University.
“It does look a little bit like what we saw in the 1997/98 event, and that was probably the strongest El Niño,” he told Agence France-Presse (AFP).
There are still plenty of uncertainties, and van Rensch cautioned it was possible an El Niño might not develop at all.
But the 1997 El Niño brought catastrophic impacts, including extreme drought and devastating wildfires in Indonesia that burned through millions of hectares and created regional air pollution.
Authorities there have already identified peatlands at risk, and warned the country could see its lowest rainfall in 30 years.
The warnings come with Asia buckling under the strain of an energy supply crunch and fears over shortages of fertilizer and other industrial and agricultural components which pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Strain energy grids
Iran has effectively closed the strategic waterway since the United States and Israel launched attacks on the country on Feb. 28, disrupting global fuel supplies.
Hotter weather will strain energy grids already experiencing fuel shortages, as populations seek to cool homes and workplaces, warned Haneea Isaad, energy finance specialist at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
“For countries that are highly dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for oil and gas deliveries and other trade, strained supply will lead to further fuel rationing, demand-side management and a reduction in economic activities… impacting overall GDP growth,” she told AFP.
The droughts that El Niño can bring to parts of the region also pose a threat to countries that are highly dependent on hydropower, said Dinita Setyawati, senior energy analyst for Asia at the Ember think tank.
“Most Asean countries use a lot of hydropower,” she warned, highlighting Mekong countries, Nepal, and parts of Malaysia as particularly vulnerable because of their dependence on the sector.
Fresh risks
The risks were laid bare in 2022, when a heat wave in China saw hydropower generation in Sichuan fall over 50 percent, creating shortages that impacted households and industry alike.
Hotter, drier conditions will also create fresh risks for agriculture, already under pressure as the ongoing conflict raises the costs of fertilizer and fuel needed for farming equipment.
“If crop prices do not rise enough to offset these higher input and shipping costs, producer margins will be squeezed, raising the likelihood of lower fertilizer application and weaker yields,” warned BMI, a unit of the Fitch Solutions research company.
“This would intensify food price inflation and worsen food insecurity, especially in import dependent and climate-vulnerable markets.”
For some parts of Asia, an El Niño can bring bouts of intense rain and provoke flooding, which could impact sectors like southern China’s late-season rice harvest, added Isaad.
How climate change affects the emergence and strength of El Niños is still not well understood.
But research shows climate change itself will bring more frequent intense heat waves, as well as sudden heavy rainfall that can cause flooding.
So experts said countries across the region should further insulate energy systems against more frequent disruptive weather events by diversifying and greening their grids.
“Solar and wind, coupled with batteries, provide a more resilient infrastructure than a centralized fossil infrastructure,” said Setyawati.
