Concerted action vs El Niño
If the scientific community’s dire predictions will come to pass, the active El Niño weather phenomenon that is widely predicted to reach its peak in the last quarter of this year—with the impact to be felt well into 2027—will be among the worst on record, possibly exceeding the strength of previous cycles dating back to 1950.
Unfortunately for the Philippines, it was listed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) of the United Nations among the countries “at highest risk of severe humanitarian impacts” caused or worsened by the “Super El Niño,” which is characterized by hotter and drier conditions, meaning prolonged droughts, possible water shortages, extreme heat, and consequently further slowdown in the broader economy.
“El Niño in Spanish means boy child—but it has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world. We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods and we expect these impacts to increase as El Niño intensifies,” warned WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo.
“This exceptional El Niño demands exceptional preparation and response,” Saulo stressed.
Below-normal rainfall
Given such a clear and unequivocal warning, the Marcos administration should not tarry and put preparing for the potentially severe impact of El Niño at the top of its priority list, and shift its attention and resources away from inconsequential diversions to deal with what is rising to the level of an existential threat.
“Let us not wait for our fields to turn to ash, our taps to run dry, and our people to collapse from the heat before we scramble for solutions,” Sen. Erwin Tulfo, chair of the Senate committee on social justice, welfare, and rural development, last week said. “We have the science. We have the warnings. It is time to stop managing disasters after they happen, and start executing a decisive, proactive survival strategy.”
According to the first El Niño bulletin of the Department of Agriculture issued Sept. 26, 14 of the country’s 18 regions are already reeling from drought caused by the phenomenon that began to make its presence felt in the Philippines last June, so far causing P6.87 billion in damage to the agriculture sector and affecting 223,214 farmers.
More will be added to the tally as by March 2027, all provinces will experience drought or below-normal rainfall, according to Science and Technology Secretary Renato Solidum Jr., leading to lower agricultural production and therefore even higher prices of key commodities including key staples rice and corn.
El Niño Task Force
President Marcos did activate the El Niño Task Force earlier this year, precisely to get all of the frontline agencies together to shield the Philippines against the worst effects of El Niño, drawing from the painful lessons of previous episodes such as the 2023-2024 cycle that caused P15.3 billion in damage to the agriculture sector alone.
However, the task force has been criticized for being little more than a coordinating body, with lots of talking heads and individual actions across agencies that do not project enough sense of extreme urgency considering the severe consequences of inadequate preparation.
No wonder then that a growing number of Filipinos have resorted to hoarding bottled water and buying water drums to feel some measure of control over their fate, despite government assurances that there is no reason to panic with P46 billion set aside this year alone to cushion the impact of “Super El Niño” on water supply, public health and safety and food security.
Thus Tulfo’s call for the task force to have “a clear plan, clear responsibilities, and, most importantly, the resources to act before the crisis paralyzes our communities.”
Scientific data
The excessive rains that fell at the conclusion of this year’s habagat season have fortunately filled up the country’s major dams, giving the government additional time to prepare for this year’s climate hazard that comes at a time when the Philippines is already wobbling from the weight of the Middle East oil crisis that has jacked up prices of basic goods and services.
Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel assured the public that the agency is now “more prepared,” stocking up on food and farm inputs and deploying targeted interventions including fuel and fertilizer subsidies to areas expected to be hardest hit by the “very strong” El Niño.
Environment Secretary Juan Miguel Cuna, meanwhile, said the agency was ready to conduct cloud seeding operations in agricultural and watershed areas to enhance water supply, while the Department of Science and Technology has committed to harness scientific data to regularly inform the public of the progress of the weather phenomenon.
More of these reassuring actions should be taken and then amplified, to at least signal to the public that the government is present and armed with the right strategy and the budget to cushion the impact of what could intensify into not just a climate hazard but a “systemic” shock that the Marcos administration should pull out all the stops to face head on.
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