COP31: Seat at the table

Although our country contributes minimally to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the Philippines has committed to helping curb global warming through our mitigation targets, coupled with adaptation strategies that could help shield us from the worst impacts of climate change.

The Climate Change Commission (CCC) has updated the Philippine Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). To reduce our GHG emissions and adapt to climate change impacts, the Philippine NDC 2026 outlines the country’s continuing commitment to the Paris Agreement, the global pact inked in 2015 to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and, ideally, to actively work toward 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Common but differentiated responsibilities. Led by CCC Vice Chair and Executive Director Robert Borje, the CCC launched the new NDC at Malacañang last Nov. 3. Covering 2025-2035, the new NDC sets mitigation—carbon reduction/avoidance—targets for energy, transport, industrial processes and product use, and the agriculture, waste, forestry, and other land use sectors.

The NDC, updated every five years, must show progress toward the Paris Agreement’s long-term goals. It outlines the Philippines’ commitment to climate justice, anchored in the principle of “Common but Differentiated Responsibilities” (CBDR) and “Respective Capabilities … in light of the country’s high vulnerability to climate change and its minimal historical contribution to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.”

CBDR is the founding principle of the UNFCCC, the treaty adopted at the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro to stabilize GHG concentrations in the atmosphere. The UNFCCC became the parent treaty for the 1997 Kyoto Protocol and the 2015 Paris Agreement. The UNFCCC’s principal body is the Conference of the Parties (COP), which meets annually to review progress in global climate action. Antalya, Turkiye, is currently hosting COP31, its 31st meeting.

Increasing unconditional target. The 2026 NDC outlines the country’s new and ambitious direction in mitigation: “Based on updated analysis and modeling, the Philippines commits to a net emissions reduction and/or avoidance target (including Folu) of 75 percent (of which 7 percent unconditional and 68 percent conditional upon international support) for the period 2025-2035 against projected business-as-usual cumulative emissions.” Folu stands for forestry and other land use.

Recall that the previous NDC (2021) also committed to a projected 75 percent GHG reduction and avoidance relative to the country’s baseline emissions. The difference was the split: in the old NDC, 2.71 percent was unconditional, while 72.29 percent was conditional, reflecting the country’s GHG mitigation ambition from 2020 to 2030 across five mitigation sectors: agriculture, waste, industry, transport, and energy.

The increase in unconditional targets to 7 percent matters for three reasons. First, the “increased ambition” in raising our domestic climate commitment stems from adding a sixth sector to our GHG-reduction commitment: forestry and other land use. This shows we can pursue mitigation using domestic resources, while conditional targets depend on international assistance.

Second, the NDC recognizes that forests and other ecosystems are carbon sinks capable of sustaining emissions reductions through reforestation, forest protection, and agroforestry.

Third, the NDC reflects the country’s political will, given the country’s low baseline emissions: an average of 1.98 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per capita in 2020, well below the global average of four metric tons per capita.

Rachel Herrera, a CCC Commissioner who prepared an overview of the NDC for the launch, said the NDC “reflects the Philippines’ determination to contribute to global climate action, while recognizing that achieving the full level of ambition will require sustained cooperation and support. It also recognizes the importance of protecting and strengthening our carbon sinks during the NDC period and beyond.”

The new NDC promises—or projects—that the country will be a net sink in 10 years (over the 2025-2035 commitment period), marking a progression beyond the previous 2021 NDC. A net sink (or carbon sink) status means a country absorbs more greenhouse gases from the atmosphere than it emits from fossil fuel use, helping slow the rate of global warming.

The NDC is more than an ambitious statement—it gives our country a seat at the table at the ongoing climate change conference in Türkiye. The updated NDC reminds wealthy nations that the Philippines is doing its part in climate change mitigation, even as it should focus more on adaptation. Despite contributing negligibly to climate change, the country continues to face high economic and social costs from its impacts.

If implemented effectively, the NDC can pave the way toward a climate-resilient, low-carbon economy while sustaining progress and ensuring environmental sustainability in the Philippines.

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