Navigating Asean’s future
The 49th Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) Summit will take place in Manila, Philippines, in November 2026. The regional organization is currently confronted with numerous challenges of a geopolitical, economic, technological, and security nature. The core objectives of the Philippine chairmanship, within the framework of the theme “Navigating Our Future, Together,” namely, peace and security, economic prosperity, and people empowerment, are to translate Asean cooperation into concrete results.
First established in 1967 as a way to counter threats to peace and stability in Southeast Asia through dialogue, consensus, noninterference, and other cooperative actions, Asean has transformed itself into a fully integrated, growing community and developed into a force to be reckoned with in the region and the world. The organization is currently being put to the test by great power rivalry as well as internal challenges.
The South China Sea remains a major security concern for Asean. Maritime disputes involving Asean member states and China, naval skirmishes, military buildup, and other developments threaten peace and freedom of navigation in the region. While negotiations to finalize a Code of Conduct (CoC) in the South China Sea have been ongoing for many years, no effective and implementable CoC has been put in place yet.
For the Philippines, the summit can tackle several issues, notably upholding its maritime rights and peaceful management of disputes with China in the West Philippine Sea while hopefully coalescing on a single approach to work with China, a major trading partner of Asean. While continuing to push for the early completion of a CoC, clear rules, restraints on actions at sea, and peaceful management of disputes are the ultimate objectives of any agreement.
Economic transformation is equally important. Asean countries are among the world’s fastest-growing markets for investment not only because of their large market but also because of shifts in global manufacturing and digitalization of industries. But such growth is threatened by global uncertainty, supply chain disruptions, increasing protectionism, and the competitive advantage of technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI). The challenge for Asean is to move from being just a market of consumers to producers and developers of technologies.
We must harness regional economic growth through the strengthening of our commitments toward Asean integration, particularly through increased connectivity in digital form and support to small and medium enterprises through facilitation of trade and establishment of compatible regulations and laws and agreements. Support for AI research and development as well as other emerging technologies, and harmonized standards and policies on cybersecurity and other related issues, as well as human resource development to ensure that the benefits of such progress will be equally shared by all member states, particularly the less developed ones.
Also important for the Asian region are matters related to energy and food security, because natural disasters, climate change, and currently also global politics can lead to disruptions of energy supplies and the whole food supply chain. Asean should make more progress in matters of renewable energy, cross-border electricity trading, and the implementation of the Asean power grid.
More regional coordination of agriculture, distribution, and stockpiling of foodstuffs is also needed. Because of natural disasters and climate change, an increasing number of countries are facing a serious threat to their food security. Therefore, early warning systems, disaster preparedness, and a regionally coordinated emergency response system are needed.
However, big power rivalry can be a challenge for Asean. The opportunity for better economic and strategic ties with big powers can be sidetracked by their competitive positioning toward Southeast Asia. While Asean maintains good and growing relations with China and the United States and engages other major powers, it has consistently underscored its position of neutrality in conflict and sovereign equality of all countries.
The chairmanship of the Philippines provides an opportunity for the country to navigate between security partnerships with other countries and regional cooperation. Asean should refrain from becoming a tool for external powers to engage in rivalry against each other and allow internal differences to erode its independence.
Testing Asean’s ability to move forward while preserving its long-standing guiding principles for some 60 years or more is at the heart of the summit. For the Philippine chairmanship, the test of success for Asean will be translating the summit theme “Navigating Our Future, Together” into a shared commitment and not merely a summit theme. With sufficient political will, the regional bloc can reinforce its unity and centrality in order to remain a cornerstone for peace, stability, and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region.
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Simon Hutagalung is a retired Indonesian foreign ministry official. The opinions expressed in this article are his own.
