The dilemma of energy transformation
The recent declaration of a state of national energy emergency has prompted the entire country to scramble for words to describe the current dilemma we face. The humble admittance by the Philippine government that there is indeed a crisis came out late, weeks after oil prices had spiked and hurt the poor and the middle class. When the declaration was released, it merely reiterated the writing on the wall that official communications from the Palace did not want to verbalize—things are getting out of hand, and so the President needs to take action.
Crises have a way of magnifying, or to put it bluntly, putting the spotlight on what we have known for long. Our overdependence on imported fuel has made us at the mercy of oil price movements, whether they are sliding down as in the case of sunk demand during the pandemic or when the superpower behemoths play god. They say that when America sneezes, the world catches a cold. But when you play with fire in the Middle East, the world economy is brought to a standstill at best, and contraction at worst.
Some see the thin silver lining. Similar to how contactless transactions during the pandemic accelerated the usage of e-wallet platforms, the high oil prices might boost the shift to electric vehicles for transport and renewable energy to power grids. This particular oil crisis is not the first, nor will it be the last. But this particular episode in the short history of oil, from its discovery to being the force behind the accelerated technological revolution, has become the fulcrum that could tip the balance of energy transition.
Conversations on energy transition have long echoed in the halls of industry expos and academic conferences. Today, the energy trilemma—reliability, affordability, and sustainability—is more visible than ever during the crisis. However, this triumvirate is never on an equal playing field. At this moment, we face an irony: our reliance on fossil fuels has been rooted in their reliability and affordability. But what if they become less affordable? The impasse is palpable.
However, the trilemma is not the only balance we need to consider. In the short term, the overall impact of spiking oil prices is a shakedown of the value chain: as the cost of delivery from one point to another increases, the cost of basic goods also increases. At the same time, wages fail to keep up. As a result, the poor and the middle class, at the threshold of crossing the poverty line, are the most affected. When food cannot be put on the table, all other problems become secondary. Addressing both immediate hardship and planning for the long-term energy transition are not opposite goals; rather, we must prioritize the former while laying the foundation for the latter.
The term “transition” is not haphazardly used. This is precisely because getting from where we are used to to the compromise needed to address the trilemma is not a walk in the park. For one, while putting up solar on rooftops has become easier with private enterprise offering such services and the marching order from the Department of Energy (DOE) to expedite net-metering applications, the cost remains prohibitive for a typical household. It is worth mentioning that the Government Service Insurance System has approved a loan program for this very purpose.
On the macro scale, the idea of renewable energy sources dominating the generation side means that the grid infrastructure needs to be ready. One major concern is that renewables, unlike fossil fuel plants, do not have rotating parts that generate inertia. Think of inertia as a stabilizer that keeps the whole power system running in synchrony at 60 Hz (the one you see in the user manuals). When they are replaced with more solar and wind, that stabilizer is gone. Moreover, the stark difference between oversupply during daytime due to increased solar penetration and the generation during the night remains a concern, considering that our demand peaks both during the day and at night. Without enough provision for storage systems, that excess energy will go nowhere. It is a good thing that DOE is now mandating energy storage systems to complement new variable renewable energy plants.
Energy, as taught in high school physics, cannot be created or destroyed but can only be transformed from one form to another. Our solutions, while technical in nature, also need social transformation and political will. If we know the problem and its solutions, it is up to our elected leaders to recognize the problem and implement the solutions.
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Edward Joseph H. Maguindayao is an assistant professor of electrical engineering at University of the Philippines Los Baños.
